StatSystems NBA & NCAAB Report, Monday 2/7/11
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 2/7/11
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••• FOUR ON THE FLOOR! •••
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College basketball is in the home stretch of conference play and now is the time to start working towards postseason preparation. There have been plenty of programs that have fallen far from their preseason expectations – some have taken bettors with them, some maintain their value against the spread. Here’s a look at four teams that need to shape up or ship out in the last month of the regular season:
• BUTLER BULLDOGS (15-9, 7-5 Horizon, 11-10-1 ATS) - Sharp basketball bettors saw this Final Four hangover coming. The Bulldogs’ trip to the national title game last year set the bar way too high for this season, leaving Brad Stevens and his team to play against itself rather than focusing on the Horizon League slate. Butler has dropped five league games and will have to win the conference title to get back to the dance. Those expectations have Bulldogs backers playing against extra points on the spread every night and the team has responded by going 3-7 in its last 10 outings.
• BAYLOR BEARS (15-7, 5-4 Big 12, 5-10-0 ATS) - Baylor is another team living in last year’s shadow, but with the addition of top recruit Perry Jones, this year’s squad was supposed to be even better than the team that made the Elite Eight last season. That hasn’t been the case in Waco, where the Bears are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests. Baylor took a big step in the right direction with a 76-74 overtime victory at Texas A&M this weekend, covering as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Bears have a massive frontcourt, highlighted by Jones, and could make a run at the Big 12 title if they figure out how to exploit that advantage every game.
• MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (13-9, 5-5 Big Ten, 6-15-0 ATS) - The Spartans were crushed by the Wisconsin Badgers in the Kohl Center – one of college basketball’s toughest venues - losing 82-56 as 9-point road pups on Sunday. The Spartans are far from their form of past seasons, struggling against other elite programs then dropping conference tilts to Big 10 bottom feeders like Purdue and Indiana. Much like Phil Jackson and the Lakers, basketball fans are constantly saying “Wait until the games really count” when talking about Tom Izzo and his ability to coach up teams come March. While Sparty backers sit and wait, sharp NCAA hoops bettors are making a bundle betting against the Green and White. Michigan State still needs a respectable seed to avoid some of the better teams in the Big Dance. And, as of right now, they’re projected to land a No. 11 spot.
• MEMPHIS TIGERS (17-6, 5-3 C-USA, 7-13-0 ATS) - The kings of the C-USA were supposed to reclaim their throne this year. But some internal issues between head coach Josh Pastner and his players have slowed the team’s development. Pastner suspended Wesley Witherspoon, then reinstated the junior, then lost him to a knee injury. He also watched junior Angel Garcia leave for a Spanish pro league. All of that and more has trickled down to a 5-6 ATS mark since the New Year. The turmoil has added to Memphis’ woes, dropping back-to-back outings before knocking off Gonzaga this weekend. That victory doesn’t hold the same weight it did in past seasons, leaving the Tigers on the bubble. Their best non-conference wins have come over Miami and LSU, failing to score resume builders versus Tennessee, Georgetown and Kansas. Memphis will need to run the table in the C-USA and win the conference to make the tournament.
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***** MONDAY, FEBRUARY 7TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Memphis won/covered five of last six games. Lakers are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as a road favorite.
-- Dallas won last eight games, covered last four.
-- Houston won last two games, covered five of last seven. Nuggets covered six of their last seven games as a home favorite.
-- Bulls won/covered six of their last seven games.
-- Kings are 7-3-1 vs spread in their last eleven games.
-- Warriors won their last three games, allowing 88.3 ppg. Phoenix won three of its last four games.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Celtics covered twice in last seven games as a road favorite. Bobcats lost four of their last five games.
-- Hornets lost four of their last five games (0-5 vs spread).
-- Minnesota lost three in row, nine of last ten games.
-- Cavaliers lost last 24 games, but covered four of last five on the road.
-- Portland lost four of last six games, covered one of last seven.
-- Jazz lost nine of their last twelve games.
• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Celtics are 3-7 vs spread if they played the night before.
• TOTALS
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-- Six of last seven Boston road games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Minnesota games stayed under the total. Five of last six New Orleans games went over.
-- Three of last four Laker games went over the total. Under is 6-3 in last nine Memphis games.
-- Six of last eight Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Denver games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Chicago games.
-- Over is 6-3 in Utah's last nine home games.
-- Last three Golden State games stayed under the total.
• KEY TRENDS
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-- Minnesota Timberwolves have dropped eight of their last 10 games against the spread and each of their last four games have played under the total.
-- Memphis Grizzlies are riding a 23-9 run against the spread overall.
-- Cleveland Cavaliers have lost 23 straight games and 33 of their last 34. The Cavs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five outings.
-- Utah has covered just five times over the last 20 games.
• QUICK HITS
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-- BOSTON @ CHARLOTTE, 7:00 PM ET BOSTON: 14-5 Over after having won 2 of their last 3 games. CHARLOTTE: 4-12 ATS playing with double revenge.
-- MINNESOTA @ NEW ORLEANS, 8:00 PM ET NBA MINNESOTA: 6-2 ATS vs. New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS: 6-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
-- LA LAKERS @ MEMPHIS, 8:00 PM ET LA LAKERS: 58-72 ATS as favorite. MEMPHIS: 12-4 ATS off road loss.
-- CLEVELAND @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET CLEVELAND: 4-14 ATS vs. non-conference. DALLAS: 22-10 ATS off SU win.
-- HOUSTON @ DENVER, 9:00 PM ET HOUSTON: 7-2 ATS off division game. DENVER: 7-17 ATS off double digit road win.
-- CHICAGO @ PORTLAND, 10:00 PM ET CHICAGO: 16-3 Under off non-conference game. PORTLAND: 33-17 ATS playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
-- UTAH @ SACRAMENTO, 10:00 PM ET UTAH: 38-18 Over when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. SACRAMENTO: 8-22 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
-- PHOENIX @ GOLDEN STATE, 10:30 PM ET PHOENIX: 7-2 ATS vs. Golden State. GOLDEN STATE: 27-12 Over as a home favorite of 6 points or less.
• NOTES & TIPS
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--Celtics guard Marquis Daniels bruised his spinal cord in a collision Sunday and is expected to be sidelined at least a month. Daniels was hurt with 11:01 left in the second quarter of the Celtics' 91-80 win over the Orlando Magic after he began driving to the basket from the right side of the lane and collided with Gilbert Arenas, who was covering him. Daniels fell to the court and lay motionless for a few minutes with his head facing down while surrounded by coaches and teammates near his bench. Medical personnel put a neck brace on Daniels and strapped him onto a stretcher before he left to the cheers of the crowd, which had remained very quiet until then. He gave a thumbs-up sign as he was taken off the court before going to New England Baptist Hospital. Dr. Brian McKeon, the Celtics' team physician, said Daniels bruised his spine and has had spine issues that were addressed by his previous teams. He spent three seasons with Dallas and three with Indiana before joining Boston last season.
--The Denver Nuggets and the New York Knicks are discussing a three-team trade that would make forward Carmelo Anthony a Knick before the Feb. 24 trade deadline, according to league sources. In the proposed trade, New York would send Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry to Minnesota and the Timberwolves would send Corey Brewer and a first-round pick to Denver. Denver would also receive Wilson Chandler from New York. A Timberwolves source told ESPN The Magazine's Ric Bucher on Sunday that the team would not approve of a deal where the team received just New York's Randolph and Curry with Brewer and a first-rounder heading to Denver. While these are the names currently being discussed, additional players could be added to make a deal possible, sources said.
The deal is not expected to happen until the middle of next week at the earliest, and one source said it could drag out until the trade deadline. Denver, which has been exchanging proposals with the Knicks for the past couple weeks, is weighing other options. With teams aware of Anthony's desire to play in New York, the Nuggets' choices are limited. With little chance of signing Anthony long-term, few clubs are willing to send valuable assets to Denver. If the trade with New York and Minnesota goes through, Anthony would be in line to receive a three-year, $65 million contract extension as part of the agreement in what is known as an extend-and-trade.
--Celtics coach Doc Rivers said reserve center Shaquille O'Neal will miss the next two games because of an inflamed Achilles and could be sidelined through the All-Star break as the team hopes to cure all the bumps and bruises that have limited O'Neal this season. In sitting out Sunday's game against the Orlando Magic, O'Neal will miss his 14th game this season with a variety of injuries, including a bruised right knee, sore right calf and sore right hip. Pressed on what the team needs to see in order to put O'Neal back on the floor, Rivers said he'll let the medical staff decide that. Rivers stressed that he won't rush to get O'Neal back on the floor.
--The NBA has fined J.R. Smith of the Denver Nuggets $25,000 for a flagrant-2 foul against Raja Bell of the Utah Jazz. The NBA announced the discipline Saturday. Smith was ejected after the incident in the fourth quarter of the Nuggets' 113-106 loss to the Jazz at the Pepsi Center in Denver on Friday night. The game got chippy in the fourth quarter when Smith and Bell got tangled up underneath the Nuggets' basket, then Smith fouled Bell on the perimeter. Finally, Smith was ejected for a flagrant-2 foul on Bell with 6:45 left and the Jazz leading 94-89.
--The Houston Rockets have suspended guard Aaron Brooks for Monday’s game against the Denver Nuggets because he walked off the court and into the locker room after being subbed out midway through an overtime win over Memphis on Saturday. Brooks, who averages 12.2 points and 4.1 assists per game, obviously isn’t happy about his role as a reserve at the moment. He has talent and won last season’s Most Improved Player award, but isn’t fitting in well with coach Rick Adelman’s share-the-ball offense.
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• NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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*** #701 BOSTON (-4.5, O/U 183) @ #702 CHARLOTTE ***
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Boston's Ray Allen has made a living off the 3-point shot since his professional career began 15 years ago. With just four more made 3-pointers, he'll be the NBA's all-time leader. Allen looks to move to the top of the all-time list and help the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics defeat the Bobcats for a seventh straight time when the teams meet in Charlotte on Monday night. Allen made 2 of 4 3-point attempts in Sunday's 91-80 win over Orlando to move within three of the NBA record. Reggie Miller, who retired in 2005, holds the mark with 2,560.
"This is a moment that I've never experienced before," Allen said after Friday's 101-97 loss to Dallas. "I don't know how many people can experience this type of moment." Allen has been one of the league's most-feared perimeter shooters for years, but this season he has been knocking down shots from beyond the arc at an incredible clip. Allen ranks fourth in the league in 3-point percentage at 45.7, which would be a new single-season personal best. His best 3-point shooting season came with Milwaukee in 2001-02, when he shot 43.4 percent. Allen made his first career 3-pointer as a rookie for the Bucks in 1996, eight seasons before the Bobcats played their first game.
Charlotte has little luck against the Celtics (38-12), losing 18 of their 23 meetings. Allen has been a big reason why. The sharpshooter is averaging 17.5 points and shooting 52.5 percent from 3-point range during Boston's six-game winning streak in the series. He was 4 of 6 from beyond the arc in a 99-94 win over the Bobcats on Jan. 14. Two-time All-Star Rajon Rondo had 18 points and 13 assists in that game, and finished with a season-high 26 points Sunday. The Celtics rallied to beat the Magic after a scary injury to backup guard Marquis Daniels with 11:01 left in the second quarter and Boston down by seven.
Daniels was taken off the court on a stretcher after a collision with Gilbert Arenas. Team physician Brian McKeon said Daniels bruised his spinal cord, and team president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said he would miss one to two months. "It's crazy to say you have to wait for something to happen to get a boost," Rondo said. "That's how it is." Boston didn't need any extra inspiration in its last game in Charlotte on Dec. 11. The Celtics cruised to a 93-62 victory, holding the Bobcats to 16 or fewer points in each quarter. The Bobcats (21-29) were 31-10 on their home floor last season, but are just 12-13 in Charlotte this season and have dropped the first two games of a challenging three-game homestand.
Hoping to make a statement against some of the league's best teams, the Bobcats lost to Miami 109-97 on Friday, then fell to the Mavericks 101-92 the following night. Charlotte has lost four of five overall games to drop one game behind eighth-place Indiana in the East. Following the loss to Dallas, coach Paul Silas seemed to be most upset with Stephen Jackson, who picked up his 12th technical of the season. Jackson, who averages a team-best 18.9 points, is four technical fouls away from earning a one-game suspension. "He's been acting that way for quite some time now," Silas said. "That's up to him to evaluate himself." Jackson had an awful shooting performance Saturday, missing 12 of 17 shots. He hasn't had much luck against the Celtics this season, scoring 13 in each game.
--CHARLOTTE is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 45.3, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--CHARLOTTE is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 99.1, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 20-5 against the 1rst half line (+14.5 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.9, OPPONENT 45.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 5; O/U 186
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -6.82
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) - 42+ games.
(21-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +18.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +116
The average score in these games was: Team 102.5, Opponent 96 (Average point differential = +6.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5, +11.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (111-66, +19.8 units).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's).
(43-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.9
The average score in these games was: Team 95.4, Opponent 95 (Total points scored = 190.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 31 (51.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (158-127).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (CHARLOTTE) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a good defensive team (88-92 PPG) after 42+ games.
(45-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +25.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.8, Opponent 42.7 (Average first half point differential = +8.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (132-100).
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*** #703 MINNESOTA @ #704 NEW ORLEANS (-8, O/U 201) ***
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The New Orleans Hornets have quickly cooled off since matching their longest winning streak in franchise history. A visit from the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves seems likely to help them get back on track, but the Hornets couldn't stop the Timberwolves earlier this season. In Monday night's rematch, New Orleans will try to win its sixth straight at home over Minnesota. The Hornets (32-20) had a six-game home win streak snapped with a 101-95 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night and dropped to 1-4 overall following a run of 10 consecutive victories.
New Orleans allowed an average of 86.8 points during its team-record-tying win streak but has given up 100.0 per contest in the past five games while dealing with injuries. Starting forward Trevor Ariza is day-to-day with a sprained right ankle and reserve center Jason Smith missed Saturday's game with an illness. The Hornets tried to add some depth by signing Sasha Pavlovic, who played for Minnesota last season, to a 10-day contract Friday. The Hornets are also without starting center Emeka Okafor, who has missed three straight games with a strained left oblique muscle. Aaron Gray had his fourth career double-double (10 points, 10 rebounds) while starting in place of Okafor on Saturday.
"We don't use anything as an excuse and I think our guys have bought into that," coach Monty Williams said. "If you put an NBA jersey on you have a chance to win the game and that's how we approach it." No matter how short-handed, Williams' team seems to have a chance for a victory with Minnesota (11-39) visiting. The Timberwolves enter the game having dropped 14 of 16 overall and with the Western Conference's worst road record at 2-23. Minnesota has also allowed an average of 111.5 points while losing nine of 10, including a 113-100 defeat to Denver on Saturday night. The Nuggets shot 54.4 percent.
"There should be a nice flow to the movement to our defense and we get this kind of stuff," coach Kurt Rambis said, making a frenetic, chopping motion with his arms. "That opens up gaps for good teams to be able to find those opportunities inside." After scoring four points the previous night in a loss at Toronto, Michael Beasley had 23 points, and All-Star big man Kevin Love recorded his 36th consecutive double-double with 18 points and 19 rebounds. If he posts another Monday, Love will tie the franchise record established by Kevin Garnett from Feb. 1-Nov. 6, 2006. He has five double-doubles in eight career matchups with the Hornets.
Beasley scored 30 points and rookie Wes Johnson had a season-high 24 as Minnesota claimed a 113-98 win over New Orleans on Dec. 27. The Timberwolves shot 53.2 percent in that victory as all five starters scored in double figures. They also limited the Hornets to 42.4 percent shooting while snapping a six-game skid in the series. Minnesota, though, was routed 114-86 in its last trip to New Orleans on April 11, its fifth straight loss there. Okafor had a team-best 23 points for the Hornets, who were playing without All-Star point guard Chris Paul. Paul had 22 points and 13 assists in the December loss to the Timberwolves and David West scored 23 points.
--NEW ORLEANS is 17-3 UNDER (+13.7 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 91.6, OPPONENT 90.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 91.6, OPPONENT 85.1 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New Orleans by 12; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Orleans -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New Orleans -11.66
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(38-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.4%, +28.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -192
The average score in these games was: Team 104.4, Opponent 93 (Average point differential = +11.4)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +3.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-4, +22.5 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (85-23, +32.7 units).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (MINNESOTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games.
(33-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.8%, +27.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.3, Opponent 48.2 (Total first half points scored = 96.5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (41-17).
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record.
(79-13 since 1996.) (85.9%, +49.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -224.2
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 91 (Average point differential = +11.5)
The situation's record this season is: (8-1, +5.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-4, +23.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (42-6, +32.4 units).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher.
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 102.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.6, Opponent 45.8 (Total first half points scored = 95.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (32-13).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (MINNESOTA) - after 5 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG).
(27-6 since 1996.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 102.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 46.8 (Total first half points scored = 96.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-4).
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 2/7/11
NBA & NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
_______________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA & NCAAB *****
__________________________________________________ _____
When you are ready to step up an into the challenge of advanced sports handicapping, be sure to check out Stan 'The Man's ALL NEW Stat/Systems Sheets. They are loaded with power ratings, computer predictions, matchups, betting trends, systems, statistics, schedules and results. Once you have sampled my Stat/Systems Sheets, you will no longer need free picks, consensus plays, or other professional handicapping services!
Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• FOUR ON THE FLOOR! •••
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College basketball is in the home stretch of conference play and now is the time to start working towards postseason preparation. There have been plenty of programs that have fallen far from their preseason expectations – some have taken bettors with them, some maintain their value against the spread. Here’s a look at four teams that need to shape up or ship out in the last month of the regular season:
• BUTLER BULLDOGS (15-9, 7-5 Horizon, 11-10-1 ATS) - Sharp basketball bettors saw this Final Four hangover coming. The Bulldogs’ trip to the national title game last year set the bar way too high for this season, leaving Brad Stevens and his team to play against itself rather than focusing on the Horizon League slate. Butler has dropped five league games and will have to win the conference title to get back to the dance. Those expectations have Bulldogs backers playing against extra points on the spread every night and the team has responded by going 3-7 in its last 10 outings.
• BAYLOR BEARS (15-7, 5-4 Big 12, 5-10-0 ATS) - Baylor is another team living in last year’s shadow, but with the addition of top recruit Perry Jones, this year’s squad was supposed to be even better than the team that made the Elite Eight last season. That hasn’t been the case in Waco, where the Bears are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests. Baylor took a big step in the right direction with a 76-74 overtime victory at Texas A&M this weekend, covering as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Bears have a massive frontcourt, highlighted by Jones, and could make a run at the Big 12 title if they figure out how to exploit that advantage every game.
• MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (13-9, 5-5 Big Ten, 6-15-0 ATS) - The Spartans were crushed by the Wisconsin Badgers in the Kohl Center – one of college basketball’s toughest venues - losing 82-56 as 9-point road pups on Sunday. The Spartans are far from their form of past seasons, struggling against other elite programs then dropping conference tilts to Big 10 bottom feeders like Purdue and Indiana. Much like Phil Jackson and the Lakers, basketball fans are constantly saying “Wait until the games really count” when talking about Tom Izzo and his ability to coach up teams come March. While Sparty backers sit and wait, sharp NCAA hoops bettors are making a bundle betting against the Green and White. Michigan State still needs a respectable seed to avoid some of the better teams in the Big Dance. And, as of right now, they’re projected to land a No. 11 spot.
• MEMPHIS TIGERS (17-6, 5-3 C-USA, 7-13-0 ATS) - The kings of the C-USA were supposed to reclaim their throne this year. But some internal issues between head coach Josh Pastner and his players have slowed the team’s development. Pastner suspended Wesley Witherspoon, then reinstated the junior, then lost him to a knee injury. He also watched junior Angel Garcia leave for a Spanish pro league. All of that and more has trickled down to a 5-6 ATS mark since the New Year. The turmoil has added to Memphis’ woes, dropping back-to-back outings before knocking off Gonzaga this weekend. That victory doesn’t hold the same weight it did in past seasons, leaving the Tigers on the bubble. Their best non-conference wins have come over Miami and LSU, failing to score resume builders versus Tennessee, Georgetown and Kansas. Memphis will need to run the table in the C-USA and win the conference to make the tournament.
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day! “Who will cash at the betting window on Monday, be sure to get all your winners each day... "Where the Winning Never Stops right here @ Stat/Systems Sports!" Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 "You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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***** MONDAY, FEBRUARY 7TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Memphis won/covered five of last six games. Lakers are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as a road favorite.
-- Dallas won last eight games, covered last four.
-- Houston won last two games, covered five of last seven. Nuggets covered six of their last seven games as a home favorite.
-- Bulls won/covered six of their last seven games.
-- Kings are 7-3-1 vs spread in their last eleven games.
-- Warriors won their last three games, allowing 88.3 ppg. Phoenix won three of its last four games.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Celtics covered twice in last seven games as a road favorite. Bobcats lost four of their last five games.
-- Hornets lost four of their last five games (0-5 vs spread).
-- Minnesota lost three in row, nine of last ten games.
-- Cavaliers lost last 24 games, but covered four of last five on the road.
-- Portland lost four of last six games, covered one of last seven.
-- Jazz lost nine of their last twelve games.
• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Celtics are 3-7 vs spread if they played the night before.
• TOTALS
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-- Six of last seven Boston road games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Minnesota games stayed under the total. Five of last six New Orleans games went over.
-- Three of last four Laker games went over the total. Under is 6-3 in last nine Memphis games.
-- Six of last eight Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Denver games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Chicago games.
-- Over is 6-3 in Utah's last nine home games.
-- Last three Golden State games stayed under the total.
• KEY TRENDS
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-- Minnesota Timberwolves have dropped eight of their last 10 games against the spread and each of their last four games have played under the total.
-- Memphis Grizzlies are riding a 23-9 run against the spread overall.
-- Cleveland Cavaliers have lost 23 straight games and 33 of their last 34. The Cavs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five outings.
-- Utah has covered just five times over the last 20 games.
• QUICK HITS
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-- BOSTON @ CHARLOTTE, 7:00 PM ET BOSTON: 14-5 Over after having won 2 of their last 3 games. CHARLOTTE: 4-12 ATS playing with double revenge.
-- MINNESOTA @ NEW ORLEANS, 8:00 PM ET NBA MINNESOTA: 6-2 ATS vs. New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS: 6-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
-- LA LAKERS @ MEMPHIS, 8:00 PM ET LA LAKERS: 58-72 ATS as favorite. MEMPHIS: 12-4 ATS off road loss.
-- CLEVELAND @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET CLEVELAND: 4-14 ATS vs. non-conference. DALLAS: 22-10 ATS off SU win.
-- HOUSTON @ DENVER, 9:00 PM ET HOUSTON: 7-2 ATS off division game. DENVER: 7-17 ATS off double digit road win.
-- CHICAGO @ PORTLAND, 10:00 PM ET CHICAGO: 16-3 Under off non-conference game. PORTLAND: 33-17 ATS playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
-- UTAH @ SACRAMENTO, 10:00 PM ET UTAH: 38-18 Over when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. SACRAMENTO: 8-22 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
-- PHOENIX @ GOLDEN STATE, 10:30 PM ET PHOENIX: 7-2 ATS vs. Golden State. GOLDEN STATE: 27-12 Over as a home favorite of 6 points or less.
• NOTES & TIPS
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--Celtics guard Marquis Daniels bruised his spinal cord in a collision Sunday and is expected to be sidelined at least a month. Daniels was hurt with 11:01 left in the second quarter of the Celtics' 91-80 win over the Orlando Magic after he began driving to the basket from the right side of the lane and collided with Gilbert Arenas, who was covering him. Daniels fell to the court and lay motionless for a few minutes with his head facing down while surrounded by coaches and teammates near his bench. Medical personnel put a neck brace on Daniels and strapped him onto a stretcher before he left to the cheers of the crowd, which had remained very quiet until then. He gave a thumbs-up sign as he was taken off the court before going to New England Baptist Hospital. Dr. Brian McKeon, the Celtics' team physician, said Daniels bruised his spine and has had spine issues that were addressed by his previous teams. He spent three seasons with Dallas and three with Indiana before joining Boston last season.
--The Denver Nuggets and the New York Knicks are discussing a three-team trade that would make forward Carmelo Anthony a Knick before the Feb. 24 trade deadline, according to league sources. In the proposed trade, New York would send Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry to Minnesota and the Timberwolves would send Corey Brewer and a first-round pick to Denver. Denver would also receive Wilson Chandler from New York. A Timberwolves source told ESPN The Magazine's Ric Bucher on Sunday that the team would not approve of a deal where the team received just New York's Randolph and Curry with Brewer and a first-rounder heading to Denver. While these are the names currently being discussed, additional players could be added to make a deal possible, sources said.
The deal is not expected to happen until the middle of next week at the earliest, and one source said it could drag out until the trade deadline. Denver, which has been exchanging proposals with the Knicks for the past couple weeks, is weighing other options. With teams aware of Anthony's desire to play in New York, the Nuggets' choices are limited. With little chance of signing Anthony long-term, few clubs are willing to send valuable assets to Denver. If the trade with New York and Minnesota goes through, Anthony would be in line to receive a three-year, $65 million contract extension as part of the agreement in what is known as an extend-and-trade.
--Celtics coach Doc Rivers said reserve center Shaquille O'Neal will miss the next two games because of an inflamed Achilles and could be sidelined through the All-Star break as the team hopes to cure all the bumps and bruises that have limited O'Neal this season. In sitting out Sunday's game against the Orlando Magic, O'Neal will miss his 14th game this season with a variety of injuries, including a bruised right knee, sore right calf and sore right hip. Pressed on what the team needs to see in order to put O'Neal back on the floor, Rivers said he'll let the medical staff decide that. Rivers stressed that he won't rush to get O'Neal back on the floor.
--The NBA has fined J.R. Smith of the Denver Nuggets $25,000 for a flagrant-2 foul against Raja Bell of the Utah Jazz. The NBA announced the discipline Saturday. Smith was ejected after the incident in the fourth quarter of the Nuggets' 113-106 loss to the Jazz at the Pepsi Center in Denver on Friday night. The game got chippy in the fourth quarter when Smith and Bell got tangled up underneath the Nuggets' basket, then Smith fouled Bell on the perimeter. Finally, Smith was ejected for a flagrant-2 foul on Bell with 6:45 left and the Jazz leading 94-89.
--The Houston Rockets have suspended guard Aaron Brooks for Monday’s game against the Denver Nuggets because he walked off the court and into the locker room after being subbed out midway through an overtime win over Memphis on Saturday. Brooks, who averages 12.2 points and 4.1 assists per game, obviously isn’t happy about his role as a reserve at the moment. He has talent and won last season’s Most Improved Player award, but isn’t fitting in well with coach Rick Adelman’s share-the-ball offense.
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• NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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*** #701 BOSTON (-4.5, O/U 183) @ #702 CHARLOTTE ***
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Boston's Ray Allen has made a living off the 3-point shot since his professional career began 15 years ago. With just four more made 3-pointers, he'll be the NBA's all-time leader. Allen looks to move to the top of the all-time list and help the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics defeat the Bobcats for a seventh straight time when the teams meet in Charlotte on Monday night. Allen made 2 of 4 3-point attempts in Sunday's 91-80 win over Orlando to move within three of the NBA record. Reggie Miller, who retired in 2005, holds the mark with 2,560.
"This is a moment that I've never experienced before," Allen said after Friday's 101-97 loss to Dallas. "I don't know how many people can experience this type of moment." Allen has been one of the league's most-feared perimeter shooters for years, but this season he has been knocking down shots from beyond the arc at an incredible clip. Allen ranks fourth in the league in 3-point percentage at 45.7, which would be a new single-season personal best. His best 3-point shooting season came with Milwaukee in 2001-02, when he shot 43.4 percent. Allen made his first career 3-pointer as a rookie for the Bucks in 1996, eight seasons before the Bobcats played their first game.
Charlotte has little luck against the Celtics (38-12), losing 18 of their 23 meetings. Allen has been a big reason why. The sharpshooter is averaging 17.5 points and shooting 52.5 percent from 3-point range during Boston's six-game winning streak in the series. He was 4 of 6 from beyond the arc in a 99-94 win over the Bobcats on Jan. 14. Two-time All-Star Rajon Rondo had 18 points and 13 assists in that game, and finished with a season-high 26 points Sunday. The Celtics rallied to beat the Magic after a scary injury to backup guard Marquis Daniels with 11:01 left in the second quarter and Boston down by seven.
Daniels was taken off the court on a stretcher after a collision with Gilbert Arenas. Team physician Brian McKeon said Daniels bruised his spinal cord, and team president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said he would miss one to two months. "It's crazy to say you have to wait for something to happen to get a boost," Rondo said. "That's how it is." Boston didn't need any extra inspiration in its last game in Charlotte on Dec. 11. The Celtics cruised to a 93-62 victory, holding the Bobcats to 16 or fewer points in each quarter. The Bobcats (21-29) were 31-10 on their home floor last season, but are just 12-13 in Charlotte this season and have dropped the first two games of a challenging three-game homestand.
Hoping to make a statement against some of the league's best teams, the Bobcats lost to Miami 109-97 on Friday, then fell to the Mavericks 101-92 the following night. Charlotte has lost four of five overall games to drop one game behind eighth-place Indiana in the East. Following the loss to Dallas, coach Paul Silas seemed to be most upset with Stephen Jackson, who picked up his 12th technical of the season. Jackson, who averages a team-best 18.9 points, is four technical fouls away from earning a one-game suspension. "He's been acting that way for quite some time now," Silas said. "That's up to him to evaluate himself." Jackson had an awful shooting performance Saturday, missing 12 of 17 shots. He hasn't had much luck against the Celtics this season, scoring 13 in each game.
--CHARLOTTE is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 45.3, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--CHARLOTTE is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 99.1, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 20-5 against the 1rst half line (+14.5 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.9, OPPONENT 45.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 5; O/U 186
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -6.82
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) - 42+ games.
(21-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +18.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +116
The average score in these games was: Team 102.5, Opponent 96 (Average point differential = +6.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5, +11.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (111-66, +19.8 units).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's).
(43-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.9
The average score in these games was: Team 95.4, Opponent 95 (Total points scored = 190.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 31 (51.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (158-127).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (CHARLOTTE) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a good defensive team (88-92 PPG) after 42+ games.
(45-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +25.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.8, Opponent 42.7 (Average first half point differential = +8.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (132-100).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” –Stan ‘The Man
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*** #703 MINNESOTA @ #704 NEW ORLEANS (-8, O/U 201) ***
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The New Orleans Hornets have quickly cooled off since matching their longest winning streak in franchise history. A visit from the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves seems likely to help them get back on track, but the Hornets couldn't stop the Timberwolves earlier this season. In Monday night's rematch, New Orleans will try to win its sixth straight at home over Minnesota. The Hornets (32-20) had a six-game home win streak snapped with a 101-95 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night and dropped to 1-4 overall following a run of 10 consecutive victories.
New Orleans allowed an average of 86.8 points during its team-record-tying win streak but has given up 100.0 per contest in the past five games while dealing with injuries. Starting forward Trevor Ariza is day-to-day with a sprained right ankle and reserve center Jason Smith missed Saturday's game with an illness. The Hornets tried to add some depth by signing Sasha Pavlovic, who played for Minnesota last season, to a 10-day contract Friday. The Hornets are also without starting center Emeka Okafor, who has missed three straight games with a strained left oblique muscle. Aaron Gray had his fourth career double-double (10 points, 10 rebounds) while starting in place of Okafor on Saturday.
"We don't use anything as an excuse and I think our guys have bought into that," coach Monty Williams said. "If you put an NBA jersey on you have a chance to win the game and that's how we approach it." No matter how short-handed, Williams' team seems to have a chance for a victory with Minnesota (11-39) visiting. The Timberwolves enter the game having dropped 14 of 16 overall and with the Western Conference's worst road record at 2-23. Minnesota has also allowed an average of 111.5 points while losing nine of 10, including a 113-100 defeat to Denver on Saturday night. The Nuggets shot 54.4 percent.
"There should be a nice flow to the movement to our defense and we get this kind of stuff," coach Kurt Rambis said, making a frenetic, chopping motion with his arms. "That opens up gaps for good teams to be able to find those opportunities inside." After scoring four points the previous night in a loss at Toronto, Michael Beasley had 23 points, and All-Star big man Kevin Love recorded his 36th consecutive double-double with 18 points and 19 rebounds. If he posts another Monday, Love will tie the franchise record established by Kevin Garnett from Feb. 1-Nov. 6, 2006. He has five double-doubles in eight career matchups with the Hornets.
Beasley scored 30 points and rookie Wes Johnson had a season-high 24 as Minnesota claimed a 113-98 win over New Orleans on Dec. 27. The Timberwolves shot 53.2 percent in that victory as all five starters scored in double figures. They also limited the Hornets to 42.4 percent shooting while snapping a six-game skid in the series. Minnesota, though, was routed 114-86 in its last trip to New Orleans on April 11, its fifth straight loss there. Okafor had a team-best 23 points for the Hornets, who were playing without All-Star point guard Chris Paul. Paul had 22 points and 13 assists in the December loss to the Timberwolves and David West scored 23 points.
--NEW ORLEANS is 17-3 UNDER (+13.7 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 91.6, OPPONENT 90.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 91.6, OPPONENT 85.1 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New Orleans by 12; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Orleans -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New Orleans -11.66
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(38-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.4%, +28.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -192
The average score in these games was: Team 104.4, Opponent 93 (Average point differential = +11.4)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +3.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-4, +22.5 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (85-23, +32.7 units).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (MINNESOTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games.
(33-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.8%, +27.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.3, Opponent 48.2 (Total first half points scored = 96.5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (41-17).
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record.
(79-13 since 1996.) (85.9%, +49.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -224.2
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 91 (Average point differential = +11.5)
The situation's record this season is: (8-1, +5.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-4, +23.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (42-6, +32.4 units).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher.
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 102.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.6, Opponent 45.8 (Total first half points scored = 95.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (32-13).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (MINNESOTA) - after 5 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG).
(27-6 since 1996.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 102.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 46.8 (Total first half points scored = 96.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-4).
StatSystems NBA & NCAAB Report, Monday 2/7/11 cont.
*** #705 L.A. LAKERS (-3.5, O/U 195) @ #706 MEMPHIS ***
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Pau Gasol came through with a tremendous effort as the Los Angeles Lakers kicked off their seven-game road trip. Los Angeles could use a repeat performance from Gasol as it tries to avoid a third consecutive loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. The Lakers (35-16) had dropped three of four prior to defeating New Orleans 101-95 on Saturday night thanks in large part to a season-high 34 points and 10 rebounds from Gasol. Kobe Bryant, who added 32 points and nine rebounds, had wanted to see Gasol become more assertive on offense and was pleased with the results.
"I'm always in attack mode and it's my responsibility to recognize things on the team that can help us," said Bryant. "I felt like it was time to kind of have a talk with him and tell him it's OK to be selfish because that's really what we need from him. "He has the skill to do it. I think it was just more of a mindset more than anything. He's such a nice person. He wants other guys to be involved...but that's not necessarily what's best for our team." Bryant is averaging 31.8 points over his last five games overall, and 33.5 in his last 15 matchups with Memphis. Los Angeles improved to 12-2 when scoring at least 100 points on the road.
"Some of it is about coming on the road, being together, and having this type of a crowd like we had (Saturday)," coach Phil Jackson said. "It was a big crowd, enthusiastic crowd and playing to that level is expected of us as champions. That's where the guys get their biggest thrill as players." The Lakers have dropped the last two of their three previous meetings this season with the Grizzlies, as Gasol a four time All-Star who spent his first six-plus seasons in Memphis has averaged 15.3 points against his former team. Los Angeles is 21-4 when Gasol scores at least 20.
Memphis (27-25) had its season-best five-game winning streak snapped with a 95-93 overtime loss at Houston on Saturday night despite leading by as many as 14. "Nothing is ever given to us," said Rudy Gay, who recorded back-to-back double-doubles for the first time all season with 17 points and 11 rebounds. "We let this one get away." Gay is averaging 23.7 points on 55.8-percent shooting against the Lakers this season. The Grizzlies have won eight of nine at home, including four straight while averaging 108.5 points. The Lakers are limiting opponents to an average of 95.3 points over their last 15 road games.
Mike Conley shot a season-worst 2 of 16 against the Rockets but could bounce back Monday, as he scored a season-high 28 points versus the Lakers in a 98-96 home win Nov. 30. Teammate Zach Randolph has 17 double-doubles in his last 18 games, averaging 22.6 points and 14.4 boards over that span. The last three games between these teams in Memphis have been decided by two points or fewer. The Grizzlies won two of them.
--MEMPHIS is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total after a loss by 6 points or less this season.
The average score was MEMPHIS 46.8, OPPONENT 48.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they were called for 10+ less fouls than opponent over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 48.5, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 1; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -1.89
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (MEMPHIS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(44-16 since 1996.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.4, Opponent 47.4 (Average first half point differential = +1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
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•Thanks Stat/Systems. I have been capping for 4 yrs now and a friend from another forum showed me some of the info in your daily report and I knew I had to sign up. Great stuff. ~ Cody - Cowpens, SC
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*** #707 CLEVELAND @ #708 DALLAS (-15, O/U 204.5) ***
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The Cleveland Cavaliers' historic losing streak has seemed like a nightmare for players and fans, and the club could have a tough time ending the slide in a road matchup with the hottest team in the NBA. Having set a single-season league record with 24 consecutive losses, Cleveland tries to avoid surpassing the franchise's own all-time league mark Monday night against the Dallas Mavericks, winners of eight straight. The Cavaliers (8-43) fell 111-105 to Portland on Saturday, giving them 34 defeats in 35 games. Cleveland hasn't won since Dec. 18. The Cavs have lost 14 times by double digits during the slide, getting outscored 108.7-94.4 in that stretch.
"It feels like a bad dream," guard Daniel Gibson said. A 25th straight defeat would surpass the overall NBA record, set by the Cavs from March 19-Nov. 5, 1982. Antawn Jamison scored 17 points against the Trail Blazers and has been one of the few bright spots for Cleveland, averaging 20.7 points during the woeful streak. "I couldn't care less about the record," coach Byron Scott said. "I care about our guys progressing and getting better. That's my biggest focus and hopefully they feel the same way." There has been almost no progress since Cleveland opened 7-9.
Dallas defeated the Cavs 104-95 on Jan. 2 despite playing without Dirk Nowitzki, overcoming Jamison's 35 points and 10 rebounds and Ramon Sessions' 19 points, 12 assists and seven boards. With its star forward now recovered from the knee injury that kept him out, Dallas (35-15) has regained its early season form, and it moved into second place in the Western Conference with a 101-92 victory over Charlotte on Saturday. Nowitzki had 25 points and has averaged 27.7 while shooting 59.2 percent over the last three victories. However, Nowitzki is averaging 20.7 points against the Cavs, his second-lowest mark against any team. He averages 20.6 versus Portland.
Tyson Chandler grabbed 15 rebounds for the second straight game Saturday and is averaging 16.1 points and 11.3 rebounds during the winning streak. "He's been big. He's our emotional leader, our vocal leader," point guard Jason Kidd said of Chandler. "He's a guy who can run the floor, finish above the rim, block shots and rebound. He's been a big part of our success." Shawn Marion led Dallas with 22 points Jan. 2 while DeShawn Stevenson added 21. That victory was Dallas' second in a row in the series, both without Nowitzki after LeBron James helped Cleveland take the previous four. The Mavericks have won eight of 10 matchups in Dallas.
--DALLAS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 99.8, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 6-20 against the 1rst half line (-16.0 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 48.2, OPPONENT 58.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 16.5; O/U 194.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -18.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -17.43
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams (CLEVELAND) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games.
(23-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.3%, +16.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (26-4 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 91.6 (Average point differential = +10.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 8 (26.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (32-19).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) - after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(27-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%, +17.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.9, Opponent 44.1 (Average first half point differential = +10.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (51-26).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(39-16 since 1996.) (70.9%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 203.3
The average score in these games was: Team 103.2, Opponent 96 (Total points scored = 199.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (41.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
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*** #709 HOUSTON @ #710 DENVER (NL) ***
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A nagging elbow injury slowed Carmelo Anthony down the stretch of the Denver Nuggets' last game, but he doesn't anticipate any further problems after an off day. The Houston Rockets probably wouldn't mind if the four-time All-Star wanted to take another day off as a precaution. Anthony seeks to help the Nuggets beat the Rockets for the fifth time in six meetings Monday night in Denver. Anthony was enjoying one of his best games of the season Saturday against Minnesota, scoring 25 points and hitting 9 of 12 shots from the field through three quarters. A bothersome right elbow flared up in the final period, however, and he only attempted one shot the rest of the way.
Denver (30-21) went on to win 113-100, and Anthony said after the game he would be a fine after a day of rest. Seeing a game against the Rockets (24-28) next on the schedule might have also aided the healing process. In four games against Houston since the start of last season, Anthony is averaging 35.0 points, his second-highest mark against any opponent. The Nuggets have won four of the last five in this series, and have also taken five of the last six meetings in Denver. With Anthony hurting late Saturday, J.R. Smith stepped up and scored 10 of his 14 points in the final seven minutes.
Chauncey Billups added 21 points and 13 assists for his first double-double of the season and Arron Afflalo scored 22 for the Nuggets, who had 30 assists on 43 baskets. "We passed the ball," coach George Karl said. "I've always felt our team, when we pass, we play well. We have so many good scorers. If we play together, I don't care what kind of defense you throw at us, you have a difficult time finding answers for how we can score points." Denver is 28-6 when scoring at least 103 points, and 2-15 when failing to hit that mark.
The Rockets are allowing an average of 104.7 points, including 110.0 in two losses to the Nuggets. Denver won 107-94 in Houston on Oct. 30 and 113-106 at home on Jan. 3. Houston arrives in Denver hoping to build on Saturday's 95-93 overtime win over Memphis. The Rockets treated the matchup against the Grizzlies like a playoff game, knowing a victory against a team ahead of them in the standings would help their postseason push. Houston is 3 1/2 games behind eighth-place Portland in the Western Conference, also needing to leapfrog Memphis and Phoenix.
"We needed this game, big-time," said Luis Scola, who scored six of his 17 points in the extra session. "This team is right ahead of us, or one of them. If you want to be in the playoffs, you need to beat them. It's a game that we wanted." Kevin Martin had 31 points Saturday, the fifth time he reached the 30-point mark in Houston's last 11 contests, but he had one of his worst performances in Denver last month. Martin, who averages a team-best 23.3 points, matched a season low with eight while shooting a season-worst 3 of 15 shooting. The Rockets are 3-11 when Martin fails to reach 20 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by 5.5; O/U 216.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -5.04
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (DENVER) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.
(27-7 since 1996.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-20)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.3
The average score in these games was: Team 93.8, Opponent 94.9 (Average point differential = -1.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (52.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (DENVER) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.
(36-13 since 1996.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 57.6, Opponent 57.3 (Average first half point differential = +0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-9).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-12).
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*** #711 CHICAGO (-1.5, O/U 183) @ #712 PORTLAND ***
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With their six-game winning streak snapped, the Chicago Bulls will look to bounce back with a better all-around effort against the Portland Trail Blazers. They haven't had many strong efforts in Portland lately. The Bulls hope to avoid their fourth consecutive loss at the Rose Garden and their 10th in 12 visits when they continue their five-game road trip versus the Blazers on Monday night. Chicago (34-15) had limited opponents to 84.3 points per game and 40.3-percent shooting during its six-game winning streak, which came to an end Saturday night with a 101-90 loss at Golden State.
The Bulls, who dropped to 2-10 when surrendering more than 100 points, need to clamp down on defense if they want to slow down Portland, which has averaged 112.7 points during its three-game home winning streak in the series. Chicago has lost the last two by an average of 33.0 points Derrick Rose went 6 of 15 from the floor Saturday to finish with 14 points, his fewest since scoring a season-low six Dec. 15. "I couldn't get a feel for the game because they didn't let me," said Rose, who had scored at least 20 points in each of his previous 10 games.
"I couldn't get to the hole. It was hard but I'll figure it out. It's just something we have to look at on film and see who's the open guy." Carlos Boozer, who missed a 110-98 home victory Nov. 1 over the Blazers due to a hand injury, had 21 points and 10 rebounds Saturday and is seeking a season-best fifth straight double-double. Fellow Chicago forward Luol Deng is likely looking forward to Monday, as he surpassed his previous career high of 38 points, which came in a 100-89 win March 26, 2007 against Portland, with a 40-point performance in the Nov. 1 win.
The Blazers (27-24) return home after closing out their three-game trip Saturday with a 111-105 victory at Cleveland, handing the Cavaliers an NBA-record 24th consecutive loss. "There's pressure playing against every team, but, of course, there's added pressure with them struggling the way they are," said Portland point guard Andre Miller, who had 13 assists. "You don't want to be the top headline: 'Streak ends to Portland Trail Blazers.' Guys took a little pride in that."
Wesley Matthews went 5 of 7 from 3-point range en route to 31 points while LaMarcus Aldridge registered his fourth double-double in five games with 20 points and 10 rebounds against the Cavs. Aldridge is averaging 29.7 points and shooting 63.8 percent during his last three matchups with the Bulls. Portland has dropped lost two of three overall home games while averaging 86.0 points, 9.5 below its season mark.
--PORTLAND is 18-4 against the 1rst half line (+13.6 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.0, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 98.9, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Chicago by 2; O/U 184
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -2.30
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game).
(143-33 since 1996.) (81.2%, +61.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -246.8
The average score in these games was: Team 100.6, Opponent 90.9 (Average point differential = +9.7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3, -1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-11, +8.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (39-11, +14.5 units).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(60-26 since 1996.) (69.8%, +31.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.8, Opponent 47 (Average first half point differential = +0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (38-12).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(57-25 since 1996.) (69.5%, +29.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.1, Opponent 43.5 (Total first half points scored = 89.6)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-8).
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•Just paid for my year of your Stat/System Reports in one day! 10-3 in college hoops on Super Situations of more than 81%. I don't know of another place where you can get ATS situations at 80% and money line situations at over 95%. These Reports are ‘AWESOM!’ ~ Chris - Los Angeles, CA
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*** #713 UTAH (-2, O/U 199) @ #714 SACRAMENTO ***
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The Sacramento Kings find themselves in the midst of a brutal part of their schedule. While they might not have originally been looking forward to their next matchup, the Kings will try to take advantage of a home meeting with the stumbling Utah Jazz on Monday night. After upsetting the two-time defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers on the road and ending New Orleans' season-best 10-game winning streak, the Kings (12-35) fell 95-90 to Eastern Conference-leading Boston before losing 113-100 on Friday night to San Antonio, the league leader with 42 wins. "We know we have a tough stretch coming up," Omri Casspi told the Kings' official website.
"We talked about it, we had the Lakers, New Orleans, Boston, San Antonio and we have Utah, Dallas and Oklahoma City coming (up). "We have to play our best to win those games and we weren't at our best (Friday) night." After shooting 50 percent or better in the wins over the Lakers and Hornets, the Kings failed to reach 44 percent in the losses to the Celtics and Spurs. Additionally, Sacramento was held to a season-low 35.8 percent shooting in its 94-83 loss at Utah on Nov. 22. Tyreke Evans, leading the team with 18.0 points per game, scored 25 against the Spurs. Last season's rookie of the year is averaging 23.0 points, tied for his second-most versus any opponent -- against Utah. He was, however, held to 11 in the last meeting.
Utah (30-22) has lost nine of 12 after a 121-105 defeat Saturday night at the hands of Oklahoma City despite 34 points and 10 rebounds from Paul Millsap. While the Jazz took a 10-point lead into the second quarter after becoming the first NBA team to start a game 11 for 11 from the floor this season, they were outscored 35-20 over the next 12 minutes and trailed for the remainder of the game. "You want to come out and win at home, that's the main thing we want to do," said Millsap, who is averaging just 8.1 points against Sacramento. "We gotta keep pushing through it, and hopefully at the end of the day, we'll be on top."
Deron Williams scored 14 points and registered 11 assists in his second game back after missing four with a strained tendon in his right wrist. Williams went 0 of 4 from 3-point range and has made just two of his last 19 attempts (10.5 percent) from long distance. Williams has averaged 15.1 points over 18 career games versus the Kings, nearly seven points below his 2010-11 average of 21.9. Utah snapped a six-game road losing streak, its longest in three seasons with a 113-106 win at Denver on Friday night. It was just the third time in 12 road games the Jazz won when allowing 100 or more points.
While Utah's Andrei Kirilenko remains uncertain to play after sitting out three straight games with a sprained left ankle, Kings starting center Jason Thompson is likely to return after missing two contests with a sprained right ankle. Thompson is averaging 8.2 points and 5.8 rebounds.
--UTAH is 38-18 OVER (+18.2 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 100.3, OPPONENT 98.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games this season.
The average score was UTAH 42.5, OPPONENT 50.0 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 1-14 against the 1rst half line (-14.4 Units) in a road game where the first half total is 95.5 to 100.5 this season.
The average score was UTAH 41.5, OPPONENT 51.3 - (Rating = 5*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Utah by 1; O/U 199.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Sacramento -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Utah -2.11
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days.
(32-4 since 1996.) (88.9%, +27.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -110
The average score in these games was: Team 97, Opponent 88.6 (Average point differential = +8.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1, +2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1, +3 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UTAH) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.
(35-8 since 1996.) (81.4%, +27.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +100.4
The average score in these games was: Team 110, Opponent 104.4 (Average point differential = +5.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2, +1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-4, +19.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-8, +22.9 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SACRAMENTO) - off a home loss by 10 points or more, playing with 2 days rest.
(23-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.7%, +15.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.5, Opponent 48.2 (Average first half point differential = +2.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (45-28).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - off 2 or more consecutive home losses against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more.
(37-12 since 1996.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.3, Opponent 46.8 (Total first half points scored = 93.1)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (UTAH) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games.
(62-26 since 1996.) (70.5%, +33.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (58-33)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.1
The average score in these games was: Team 108.9, Opponent 105.8 (Average point differential = +3.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 39 (43.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-16).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (48-22).
*** #705 L.A. LAKERS (-3.5, O/U 195) @ #706 MEMPHIS ***
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Pau Gasol came through with a tremendous effort as the Los Angeles Lakers kicked off their seven-game road trip. Los Angeles could use a repeat performance from Gasol as it tries to avoid a third consecutive loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. The Lakers (35-16) had dropped three of four prior to defeating New Orleans 101-95 on Saturday night thanks in large part to a season-high 34 points and 10 rebounds from Gasol. Kobe Bryant, who added 32 points and nine rebounds, had wanted to see Gasol become more assertive on offense and was pleased with the results.
"I'm always in attack mode and it's my responsibility to recognize things on the team that can help us," said Bryant. "I felt like it was time to kind of have a talk with him and tell him it's OK to be selfish because that's really what we need from him. "He has the skill to do it. I think it was just more of a mindset more than anything. He's such a nice person. He wants other guys to be involved...but that's not necessarily what's best for our team." Bryant is averaging 31.8 points over his last five games overall, and 33.5 in his last 15 matchups with Memphis. Los Angeles improved to 12-2 when scoring at least 100 points on the road.
"Some of it is about coming on the road, being together, and having this type of a crowd like we had (Saturday)," coach Phil Jackson said. "It was a big crowd, enthusiastic crowd and playing to that level is expected of us as champions. That's where the guys get their biggest thrill as players." The Lakers have dropped the last two of their three previous meetings this season with the Grizzlies, as Gasol a four time All-Star who spent his first six-plus seasons in Memphis has averaged 15.3 points against his former team. Los Angeles is 21-4 when Gasol scores at least 20.
Memphis (27-25) had its season-best five-game winning streak snapped with a 95-93 overtime loss at Houston on Saturday night despite leading by as many as 14. "Nothing is ever given to us," said Rudy Gay, who recorded back-to-back double-doubles for the first time all season with 17 points and 11 rebounds. "We let this one get away." Gay is averaging 23.7 points on 55.8-percent shooting against the Lakers this season. The Grizzlies have won eight of nine at home, including four straight while averaging 108.5 points. The Lakers are limiting opponents to an average of 95.3 points over their last 15 road games.
Mike Conley shot a season-worst 2 of 16 against the Rockets but could bounce back Monday, as he scored a season-high 28 points versus the Lakers in a 98-96 home win Nov. 30. Teammate Zach Randolph has 17 double-doubles in his last 18 games, averaging 22.6 points and 14.4 boards over that span. The last three games between these teams in Memphis have been decided by two points or fewer. The Grizzlies won two of them.
--MEMPHIS is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total after a loss by 6 points or less this season.
The average score was MEMPHIS 46.8, OPPONENT 48.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they were called for 10+ less fouls than opponent over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 48.5, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 1; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -1.89
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (MEMPHIS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(44-16 since 1996.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.4, Opponent 47.4 (Average first half point differential = +1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
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•Thanks Stat/Systems. I have been capping for 4 yrs now and a friend from another forum showed me some of the info in your daily report and I knew I had to sign up. Great stuff. ~ Cody - Cowpens, SC
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*** #707 CLEVELAND @ #708 DALLAS (-15, O/U 204.5) ***
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The Cleveland Cavaliers' historic losing streak has seemed like a nightmare for players and fans, and the club could have a tough time ending the slide in a road matchup with the hottest team in the NBA. Having set a single-season league record with 24 consecutive losses, Cleveland tries to avoid surpassing the franchise's own all-time league mark Monday night against the Dallas Mavericks, winners of eight straight. The Cavaliers (8-43) fell 111-105 to Portland on Saturday, giving them 34 defeats in 35 games. Cleveland hasn't won since Dec. 18. The Cavs have lost 14 times by double digits during the slide, getting outscored 108.7-94.4 in that stretch.
"It feels like a bad dream," guard Daniel Gibson said. A 25th straight defeat would surpass the overall NBA record, set by the Cavs from March 19-Nov. 5, 1982. Antawn Jamison scored 17 points against the Trail Blazers and has been one of the few bright spots for Cleveland, averaging 20.7 points during the woeful streak. "I couldn't care less about the record," coach Byron Scott said. "I care about our guys progressing and getting better. That's my biggest focus and hopefully they feel the same way." There has been almost no progress since Cleveland opened 7-9.
Dallas defeated the Cavs 104-95 on Jan. 2 despite playing without Dirk Nowitzki, overcoming Jamison's 35 points and 10 rebounds and Ramon Sessions' 19 points, 12 assists and seven boards. With its star forward now recovered from the knee injury that kept him out, Dallas (35-15) has regained its early season form, and it moved into second place in the Western Conference with a 101-92 victory over Charlotte on Saturday. Nowitzki had 25 points and has averaged 27.7 while shooting 59.2 percent over the last three victories. However, Nowitzki is averaging 20.7 points against the Cavs, his second-lowest mark against any team. He averages 20.6 versus Portland.
Tyson Chandler grabbed 15 rebounds for the second straight game Saturday and is averaging 16.1 points and 11.3 rebounds during the winning streak. "He's been big. He's our emotional leader, our vocal leader," point guard Jason Kidd said of Chandler. "He's a guy who can run the floor, finish above the rim, block shots and rebound. He's been a big part of our success." Shawn Marion led Dallas with 22 points Jan. 2 while DeShawn Stevenson added 21. That victory was Dallas' second in a row in the series, both without Nowitzki after LeBron James helped Cleveland take the previous four. The Mavericks have won eight of 10 matchups in Dallas.
--DALLAS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 99.8, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 6-20 against the 1rst half line (-16.0 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 48.2, OPPONENT 58.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 16.5; O/U 194.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -18.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -17.43
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams (CLEVELAND) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games.
(23-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.3%, +16.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (26-4 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 91.6 (Average point differential = +10.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 8 (26.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (32-19).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) - after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(27-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (75%, +17.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.9, Opponent 44.1 (Average first half point differential = +10.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (51-26).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games.
(39-16 since 1996.) (70.9%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 203.3
The average score in these games was: Team 103.2, Opponent 96 (Total points scored = 199.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (41.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
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*** #709 HOUSTON @ #710 DENVER (NL) ***
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A nagging elbow injury slowed Carmelo Anthony down the stretch of the Denver Nuggets' last game, but he doesn't anticipate any further problems after an off day. The Houston Rockets probably wouldn't mind if the four-time All-Star wanted to take another day off as a precaution. Anthony seeks to help the Nuggets beat the Rockets for the fifth time in six meetings Monday night in Denver. Anthony was enjoying one of his best games of the season Saturday against Minnesota, scoring 25 points and hitting 9 of 12 shots from the field through three quarters. A bothersome right elbow flared up in the final period, however, and he only attempted one shot the rest of the way.
Denver (30-21) went on to win 113-100, and Anthony said after the game he would be a fine after a day of rest. Seeing a game against the Rockets (24-28) next on the schedule might have also aided the healing process. In four games against Houston since the start of last season, Anthony is averaging 35.0 points, his second-highest mark against any opponent. The Nuggets have won four of the last five in this series, and have also taken five of the last six meetings in Denver. With Anthony hurting late Saturday, J.R. Smith stepped up and scored 10 of his 14 points in the final seven minutes.
Chauncey Billups added 21 points and 13 assists for his first double-double of the season and Arron Afflalo scored 22 for the Nuggets, who had 30 assists on 43 baskets. "We passed the ball," coach George Karl said. "I've always felt our team, when we pass, we play well. We have so many good scorers. If we play together, I don't care what kind of defense you throw at us, you have a difficult time finding answers for how we can score points." Denver is 28-6 when scoring at least 103 points, and 2-15 when failing to hit that mark.
The Rockets are allowing an average of 104.7 points, including 110.0 in two losses to the Nuggets. Denver won 107-94 in Houston on Oct. 30 and 113-106 at home on Jan. 3. Houston arrives in Denver hoping to build on Saturday's 95-93 overtime win over Memphis. The Rockets treated the matchup against the Grizzlies like a playoff game, knowing a victory against a team ahead of them in the standings would help their postseason push. Houston is 3 1/2 games behind eighth-place Portland in the Western Conference, also needing to leapfrog Memphis and Phoenix.
"We needed this game, big-time," said Luis Scola, who scored six of his 17 points in the extra session. "This team is right ahead of us, or one of them. If you want to be in the playoffs, you need to beat them. It's a game that we wanted." Kevin Martin had 31 points Saturday, the fifth time he reached the 30-point mark in Houston's last 11 contests, but he had one of his worst performances in Denver last month. Martin, who averages a team-best 23.3 points, matched a season low with eight while shooting a season-worst 3 of 15 shooting. The Rockets are 3-11 when Martin fails to reach 20 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by 5.5; O/U 216.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -5.04
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (DENVER) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.
(27-7 since 1996.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-20)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.3
The average score in these games was: Team 93.8, Opponent 94.9 (Average point differential = -1.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (52.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (DENVER) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.
(36-13 since 1996.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 57.6, Opponent 57.3 (Average first half point differential = +0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-9).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-12).
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*** #711 CHICAGO (-1.5, O/U 183) @ #712 PORTLAND ***
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With their six-game winning streak snapped, the Chicago Bulls will look to bounce back with a better all-around effort against the Portland Trail Blazers. They haven't had many strong efforts in Portland lately. The Bulls hope to avoid their fourth consecutive loss at the Rose Garden and their 10th in 12 visits when they continue their five-game road trip versus the Blazers on Monday night. Chicago (34-15) had limited opponents to 84.3 points per game and 40.3-percent shooting during its six-game winning streak, which came to an end Saturday night with a 101-90 loss at Golden State.
The Bulls, who dropped to 2-10 when surrendering more than 100 points, need to clamp down on defense if they want to slow down Portland, which has averaged 112.7 points during its three-game home winning streak in the series. Chicago has lost the last two by an average of 33.0 points Derrick Rose went 6 of 15 from the floor Saturday to finish with 14 points, his fewest since scoring a season-low six Dec. 15. "I couldn't get a feel for the game because they didn't let me," said Rose, who had scored at least 20 points in each of his previous 10 games.
"I couldn't get to the hole. It was hard but I'll figure it out. It's just something we have to look at on film and see who's the open guy." Carlos Boozer, who missed a 110-98 home victory Nov. 1 over the Blazers due to a hand injury, had 21 points and 10 rebounds Saturday and is seeking a season-best fifth straight double-double. Fellow Chicago forward Luol Deng is likely looking forward to Monday, as he surpassed his previous career high of 38 points, which came in a 100-89 win March 26, 2007 against Portland, with a 40-point performance in the Nov. 1 win.
The Blazers (27-24) return home after closing out their three-game trip Saturday with a 111-105 victory at Cleveland, handing the Cavaliers an NBA-record 24th consecutive loss. "There's pressure playing against every team, but, of course, there's added pressure with them struggling the way they are," said Portland point guard Andre Miller, who had 13 assists. "You don't want to be the top headline: 'Streak ends to Portland Trail Blazers.' Guys took a little pride in that."
Wesley Matthews went 5 of 7 from 3-point range en route to 31 points while LaMarcus Aldridge registered his fourth double-double in five games with 20 points and 10 rebounds against the Cavs. Aldridge is averaging 29.7 points and shooting 63.8 percent during his last three matchups with the Bulls. Portland has dropped lost two of three overall home games while averaging 86.0 points, 9.5 below its season mark.
--PORTLAND is 18-4 against the 1rst half line (+13.6 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.0, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 98.9, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Chicago by 2; O/U 184
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -2.30
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game).
(143-33 since 1996.) (81.2%, +61.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -246.8
The average score in these games was: Team 100.6, Opponent 90.9 (Average point differential = +9.7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3, -1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-11, +8.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (39-11, +14.5 units).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(60-26 since 1996.) (69.8%, +31.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.8, Opponent 47 (Average first half point differential = +0.8)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (38-12).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(57-25 since 1996.) (69.5%, +29.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.1, Opponent 43.5 (Total first half points scored = 89.6)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-8).
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*** #713 UTAH (-2, O/U 199) @ #714 SACRAMENTO ***
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The Sacramento Kings find themselves in the midst of a brutal part of their schedule. While they might not have originally been looking forward to their next matchup, the Kings will try to take advantage of a home meeting with the stumbling Utah Jazz on Monday night. After upsetting the two-time defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers on the road and ending New Orleans' season-best 10-game winning streak, the Kings (12-35) fell 95-90 to Eastern Conference-leading Boston before losing 113-100 on Friday night to San Antonio, the league leader with 42 wins. "We know we have a tough stretch coming up," Omri Casspi told the Kings' official website.
"We talked about it, we had the Lakers, New Orleans, Boston, San Antonio and we have Utah, Dallas and Oklahoma City coming (up). "We have to play our best to win those games and we weren't at our best (Friday) night." After shooting 50 percent or better in the wins over the Lakers and Hornets, the Kings failed to reach 44 percent in the losses to the Celtics and Spurs. Additionally, Sacramento was held to a season-low 35.8 percent shooting in its 94-83 loss at Utah on Nov. 22. Tyreke Evans, leading the team with 18.0 points per game, scored 25 against the Spurs. Last season's rookie of the year is averaging 23.0 points, tied for his second-most versus any opponent -- against Utah. He was, however, held to 11 in the last meeting.
Utah (30-22) has lost nine of 12 after a 121-105 defeat Saturday night at the hands of Oklahoma City despite 34 points and 10 rebounds from Paul Millsap. While the Jazz took a 10-point lead into the second quarter after becoming the first NBA team to start a game 11 for 11 from the floor this season, they were outscored 35-20 over the next 12 minutes and trailed for the remainder of the game. "You want to come out and win at home, that's the main thing we want to do," said Millsap, who is averaging just 8.1 points against Sacramento. "We gotta keep pushing through it, and hopefully at the end of the day, we'll be on top."
Deron Williams scored 14 points and registered 11 assists in his second game back after missing four with a strained tendon in his right wrist. Williams went 0 of 4 from 3-point range and has made just two of his last 19 attempts (10.5 percent) from long distance. Williams has averaged 15.1 points over 18 career games versus the Kings, nearly seven points below his 2010-11 average of 21.9. Utah snapped a six-game road losing streak, its longest in three seasons with a 113-106 win at Denver on Friday night. It was just the third time in 12 road games the Jazz won when allowing 100 or more points.
While Utah's Andrei Kirilenko remains uncertain to play after sitting out three straight games with a sprained left ankle, Kings starting center Jason Thompson is likely to return after missing two contests with a sprained right ankle. Thompson is averaging 8.2 points and 5.8 rebounds.
--UTAH is 38-18 OVER (+18.2 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 100.3, OPPONENT 98.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games this season.
The average score was UTAH 42.5, OPPONENT 50.0 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 1-14 against the 1rst half line (-14.4 Units) in a road game where the first half total is 95.5 to 100.5 this season.
The average score was UTAH 41.5, OPPONENT 51.3 - (Rating = 5*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Utah by 1; O/U 199.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Sacramento -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Utah -2.11
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days.
(32-4 since 1996.) (88.9%, +27.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -110
The average score in these games was: Team 97, Opponent 88.6 (Average point differential = +8.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1, +2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1, +3 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UTAH) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.
(35-8 since 1996.) (81.4%, +27.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +100.4
The average score in these games was: Team 110, Opponent 104.4 (Average point differential = +5.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2, +1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-4, +19.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-8, +22.9 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SACRAMENTO) - off a home loss by 10 points or more, playing with 2 days rest.
(23-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.7%, +15.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.5, Opponent 48.2 (Average first half point differential = +2.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (45-28).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - off 2 or more consecutive home losses against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more.
(37-12 since 1996.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.3, Opponent 46.8 (Total first half points scored = 93.1)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (UTAH) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games.
(62-26 since 1996.) (70.5%, +33.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (58-33)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.1
The average score in these games was: Team 108.9, Opponent 105.8 (Average point differential = +3.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 39 (43.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-16).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (48-22).
StatSystems NBA & NCAAB Report, Monday 2/7/11 cont.
*** #715 PHOENIX @ #716 GOLDEN STATE (-3, O/U 221) ***
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The Golden State Warriors have been playing well on the defensive end. That certainly hasn't been the case when the Phoenix Suns have been in town. The Warriors look to match a season high with their fourth straight win when they try to snap a three-game losing streak to the Suns on Monday night. Despite ranking among the NBA's worst with 105.9 points allowed per game, Golden State (22-27) has been outstanding on defense over the last three contests, holding opponents to 88.3 points and 42.4 percent shooting. The Warriors had one of their best defensive stretches of the season in the fourth quarter of a 101-90 victory over Chicago on Saturday, holding the Bulls to 18 points.
"Defensively we've been doing some great things, but we haven't been able to put it together for an entire game" coach Keith Smart said. "But today I think we did it... except for a little bit of the third quarter, but we put it together in the fourth quarter where it was a perfect defensive game in the fourth quarter." Golden State, though, has been far from perfect at the defensive end versus Phoenix (23-25). The Suns have averaged 123.0 points and 52.7 percent from the field in their last eight games in Oakland. Phoenix has scored 122.3 points a game and shot 47.1 percent in taking nine of the last 11 overall meetings.
Despite going 6 of 18 from 3-point range, Phoenix made 54.8 percent from the floor and won its second in a row at Oracle Arena on Dec. 2, 107-101. The Suns, however, are coming off a poor late-game effort in a 111-107 home loss to Oklahoma City on Friday. They made two field goals in the last three-plus minutes and were outscored 31-20 in the final period. "Obviously we've got to do a little bit better job defensively in the fourth quarter," coach Alvin Gentry said, "but we also missed a bunch of shots that could've given us a little separation or could've kept us right there in the game."
Vince Carter kept the Suns in it with a season-high 33 points, but he went 1 of 7 in the fourth as Phoenix's three-game winning streak was snapped. "Sometimes you feel like you have the hot hand and you are going to keep rolling," Carter told the Suns' official website. "(Missing shots) just happens sometimes." That hasn't been the case recently for Warriors point guard Stephen Curry, who has averaged 24.1 points and 55.5 percent shooting over the last eight games. Curry has also keyed the Warriors' tough defense of late, as he helped force Bulls All-Star guard Derrick Rose into a season-high nine turnovers Saturday.
"Tonight we wanted to press up on him, trap him when he had the ball and making him get (the ball) out of his hands to put them in tough situations," Curry said. "It worked out." Curry's job won't get any easier against Phoenix's Steve Nash, who despite turning 37 on Monday is averaging 16.7 points and 11.0 assists, second best in the NBA. Nash scored 13 points with 16 assists in the teams' last matchup in Oakland. Warriors guard Monta Ellis had 38 points in that contest and has averaged 33.7 in the Suns' last three visits.
--GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 132.2, OPPONENT 124.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 51.5, OPPONENT 51.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Golden St by 2; O/U 216.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Golden St -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Golden St -1.74
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%).
(27-5 since 1996.) (84.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -113
The average score in these games was: Team 101.2, Opponent 94.5 (Average point differential = +6.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1, +5.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +15.1 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more.
(38-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%, +27.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -155
The average score in these games was: Team 114.4, Opponent 107.1 (Average point differential = +7.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2, -1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-7, +22.1 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (47-11, +26.5 units).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=82 shots/game) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO) vs. a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) after 42+ games.
(32-10 since 1996.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 110.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 58.6, Opponent 58.1 (Total first half points scored = 116.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-9).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-10).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs (PHOENIX) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games.
(51-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +29 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (57-16 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5
The average score in these games was: Team 105.2, Opponent 96.7 (Average point differential = +8.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 27 (37.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-12).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (59-29).
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***** MONDAY, FEBRUARY 7TH NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL KNOWLEDGE *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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•••QUICK HITS•••
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• PITTSBURGH @ W VIRGINIA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
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--PITTSBURGH: 9-2 ATS as an underdog.
--W VIRGINIA: 3-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
Home side won eight of last 10 Pitt-West Virginia games, with Panthers 7-3 in last 10, splitting last four here. Pitt G Gibbs is out (knee); that’s big blow to Panthers, who are 9-1 in Big East, 4-0 on road. WVU split last four games; they've scored just 56.4 ppg in last five games. Big East home teams covered 11 of 17 games if spread was 3 or less points.
• CLEVELAND ST @ DETROIT, 7:00 PM ET
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--CLEVELAND ST: 11-4 ATS as a favorite.
--DETROIT: 9-22 ATS in home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days.
Detroit (+9) lost 81-69 at Cleveland State Jan 20; they're 2-6 in last eight series games- Vikings are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Detroit won last two games, but is just 1-4 vs spread as Horizon underdog. Cleveland St. had its 6-game win streak snapped by Butler Saturday. Faves are 10-5 vs spread in Horizon games if spread is less than 4 points.
• IL-CHICAGO @ BUTLER, 7:00 PM ET
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--IL-CHICAGO: 0-7 ATS after a game where they covered the spread.
--BUTLER: 9-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog.
Butler won eight in row, 11 of last 12 games vs Ill-Chicago, winning last six games played here, by 4-19-26-16-19-18 points, but Bulldogs are 2-4 in last six games overall, failing to cover last five as a favorite. Flames are 1-11 in Horizon, 3-4 as road dog, losing away games by 2-24-12-24-9-14-6 points. Double digit favorites are 5-8 vs spread in Horizon games.
• YOUNGSTOWN ST @ WRIGHT ST, 7:00 PM ET
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--YOUNGSTOWN ST: 2-8 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread.
--WRIGHT ST: 58-35 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game.
Youngstown has been gritty at home, but is 1-5 as a Horizon home dog, with road losses by 9-15-24-5-13-22 points; they lost 66-62 (+6) Jan 20 at home to Wright State. Raiders are 2-3 as Horizon home fave, winning home games by 24-3-5-13-6 points (lost to Valpo). Double digit faves are 5-8 against the spread in Horizon games, 5-5 at home.
• MISSOURI @ KANSAS, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
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--MISSOURI: 0-7 ATS in a road game where the total is 150 to 159.5.
--KANSAS: 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5.
Kansas PG Selby (foot) is out, but Jayhawks still won last three games by 24-22-20 points- they won three in row, eight of its last nine against rival Missouri, taking the last seven here by 9-12-33-3-19-25-19 points. Mizzou is 0-4 on Big 12 road, losing away games by 13-2-13-6 points. Double digit home favorites are 2-5 vs spread in Big 12 games.
• LOUISIANA TECH @ NEW MEXICO ST, 9:00 PM ET
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--LOUISIANA TECH: 4-13 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.
--NEW MEXICO ST: 11-3 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.
New Mexico State won six of last seven games vs Louisiana Tech, with Tech losing last five visits here by 15-4-9-2-2 points. Bulldogs are 2-8 in WAC but covered four of last five, including last three on road. Aggies didn't play Saturday; they're 4-0-1 as home favorite, winning by 12-18-25-9-8. WAC home favorites of 8+ points are 4-9 against the spread.
• LOYOLA-MD @ SIENA, 7:00 PM ET
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--LOYOLA-MD: 49-29 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses.
--SIENA: 0-8 ATS as a favorite.
Underdog is 11-1 vs spread in Siena's MAAC games, 7-0 in last seven Loyola tilts; Saints are 0-7 as a favorite, 0-5 at home (4-2 SU) with home wins by 6-4-2-7 points. Loyola covered its last four games as underdog. Siena (+3.5) won 76-59 at Loyola 10 days ago. Single digit home faves are 7-14-1 against the spread in MAAC games this season.
• THE CITADEL @ UNC-GREENSBORO, 7:00 PM ET
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--THE CITADEL: 30-17 ATS as an underdog.
--UNC-GREENSBORO: 1-9 ATS in home games when playing with one or less days rest.
NC-Greensboro started season 0-15, is 4-3 since (6-0-1 vs spread), with only one loss by more than a hoop; they won two of last three at home- they're 1-0 as a favorite. Citadel scored 55-60 points in losing last couple road games, but they did win last two on road (2-3 as road dog). Home team is 12-8 vs spread in SoCon games if number is 3 or less points.
• MANHATTAN @ IONA, 7:30 PM ET
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--MANHATTAN: 7-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games.
--IONA: 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points.
Manhattan is 4-19, a horrible team, but they've covered last five games on the road, losing by 10-12-2-7 points, with win at Marist on halfcourt shot at buzzer. 7-5 Iona lost last four games by total of 11 points; they are 4-1-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 9-24-18-18-38 points, with loss to Rider. Double digit home favorites are 12-6-1 in MAAC.
• AUSTIN PEAY @ TENNESSEE TECH, 8:00 PM ET
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--AUSTIN PEAY: 4-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games.
--TENNESSEE TECH: 1-5 ATS in all home games.
Tennessee Tech (+12) upset Austin Peay 71-68 in Clarksville Jan 20th, their third win in last four series games; Tech survived 22 turnovers by holding Peay to 36% from floor. AP lost four of their last six trips here; they're 3-4 in last seven games overall, after starting out 6-0 in OVC. Single digit home underdogs are 7-11 against the spread in OVC games.
• MURRAY ST @ E ILLINOIS, 8:00 PM ET
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--MURRAY ST: 12-4 ATS in road games after a conference game.
--E ILLINOIS: 17-35 ATS as a home underdog.
Eastern Illinois (+14) won 61-60 at Murray State Jan 20th, in large part due to Racers' subs going 2-9 from foul line; it was Panthers' first win in last seven series games. Murray is 5-2 in last seven visits here, winning by 18-6-11-6-9 points. Underdog covered Eastern's last nine games. OVC home underdogs of 6+ points are 5-3 vs spread.
• TENNESSEE ST @ JACKSONVILLE ST, 9:00 PM ET (TC)
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--TENNESSEE ST: 10-1 ATS off a home win.
--JACKSONVILLE ST: 3-11 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival.
Tennessee State (-9) beat Jacksonville State 68-63 Jan 20, in a game Jax led by 10 at half; teams split season series in each of last five years, as Gamecocks won four of last five series games played here. OVC home underdogs of less than 4 points are 0-8 vs spread. Tigers lost three of last four games; they're 2-4 on OVC road, with wins by 10-3 points.
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
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• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS - All Types - NCAAB - Displays the Highest Rated Active Super Situations for Upcoming Games. This includes all situation types including ATS, money line, total, halftime, and teaser.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* WRIGHT ST -12 - (88.5%)
4* MURRAY ST -360 - (85.7%)
4* MURRAY ST -8 - (84.6%)
4* THE CITADEL +1 - (81.2%)
4* AUSTIN PEAY -175 - (80.9%)
--PLAY ON - Any team (WRIGHT ST) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half.
(23-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-5 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.8
The average score in these games was: Team 68.3, Opponent 60.7 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (40% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (38-15).
--PLAY ON - Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MURRAY ST) - revenging a loss vs opponent, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
(90-15 since 1997.) (85.7%, +57.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -250
The average score in these games was: Team 73.3, Opponent 64.3 (Average point differential = +9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-2, +20.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (48-5, +38.3 units).
--PLAY ON - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MURRAY ST) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-1 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.9
The average score in these games was: Team 72.2, Opponent 60 (Average point differential = +12.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 12 (42.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (43-22).
--PLAY ON - An underdog vs. the 1rst half line (THE CITADEL) - off a home loss against a conference rival, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=20%).
(26-6 since 1997.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.1, Opponent 29.3 (Average first half point differential = +2.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0).
--PLAY ON - A favorite vs. the money line (AUSTIN PEAY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss as a home favorite.
(93-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.9%, +55 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -173
The average score in these games was: Team 71.6, Opponent 64 (Average point differential = +7.6)
The situation's record this season is: (3-4, -5.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-12, +20.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (229-87, +70.2 units).
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• NOTES & TIPS
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--Josh Selby, Kansas Jayhawks – Selby missed Saturday’s blowout victory over Nebraska and is listed as questionable for Monday’s tilt with Missouri. Selby had scored at least 12 points in three straight games before spraining his left ankle and averages 12 points at 3.2 assists per game. The Jayhawks are pegged as 10-point favorites with the total pegged at 154.
--Just as the Tar Heels are playing their best basketball of the season, winning four in a row since being blown out at Georgia Tech, junior guard Larry Drew II decides to leave the team. Drew has left the program to transfer. He has been a major contributor lately and had nine assists in the last game against Boston College. You have to wonder about the timing of this decision. A move like this, early in February, cannot help the team emotionally and physically.
Losing a key player in the rotation is never a good situation. It puts more pressure on the guys still there, including a player such as Kendall Marshall. Drew must be concerned about his future, and this all comes down to playing time. North Carolina was also hurt by the transfer of the Wear brothers (David and Travis) at the beginning of the season. They headed back to the west coast, to join Ben Howland's club at UCLA. It will be interesting to see the effect this has on the Tar Heels for the next few games. At this point in the season, it is extremely tough to lose a piece to the puzzle, especially when he played such significant minutes.
--One unbeaten, One winless left in Division I, look at the only unbeaten and winless teams remaining in Division I through Sunday, Feb. 6. UNBEATENS: Ohio State (24-0). Last win: Freshman Jared Sullinger had 18 points and 13 rebounds and the top-ranked Buckeyes beat Minnesota 82-69 despite going 10 of 20 from the free throw line. Next game: at No. 19 Wisconsin (17-5) on Saturday.
WINLESS: Centenary (0-25). Last loss: South Dakota State went 12 of 23 from 3-point range in a 102-73 win over the Gentlemen, who lost their 30th straight, four short of the Division I record set by Sacramento State from 1997-99. Next game: at Southern Utah (7-16) on Thursday.
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••• WEEK #14 NCAAB BETTING PREVIEW •••
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If you thought you were going to have time to catch your breath and regroup following the Super Bowl, think again. Rivalry week arrives on the college basketball betting schedule Monday with ESPN flooding its airwaves with a huge list of conference matchups. Week #13 didn't turn out to be unlucky for most of last week's top 10, though Kentucky might argue that. Ranked No. 10 last week, the Wildcats dropped a pair of close road contests at Mississippi (71-69) and Florida (70-68). Kentucky now has to try and get its act back together against a pair of Volunteer State rivals, Tennessee and Kentucky.
No. 6 Connecticut was the only other top-10 school to suffer a loss this past week, falling 66-58 as three-point home chalk to Syracuse who was coming off four consecutive defeats. The Huskies did manage to get back in the win column on Saturday, but just barely in a 61-59 win once again as three-point favorites. UConn has now dropped its last three games at the NCAA betting window after beginning the season 10-3 against the spread. Here's a quick glance at where the most recent AP top 10 will be in action over the next seven days.
#1 OHIO STATE (24-0 SU, 11-10 ATS) - The Buckeyes have a light week with just one game, and it's a big one. Ohio State travels to Wisconsin on Saturday (Feb. 12) in a collision of ranked schools that finds the Buckeyes looking for their first win in Madison since March 2003. The two schools swapped home wins and covers last season, both games finishing 'under' the total.
#2 KANSAS (22-1, 11-10) - Bill Self's crew begins the week at home Monday (Feb. 7) against their rivals from Missouri. The Jayhawks currently own a three-game SU and ATS streak versus the Tigers who last won in Lawrence in 1999. Kansas will remain at Allen Fieldhouse for Saturday's matchup with Iowa State. Coach Self is 95-9 straight up and 60-41-3 against the spread at home in conference games during his career as a Division-1 coach, including 26-11-1 ATS versus a conference foe off a SU and ATS win.
#3 TEXAS (20-3, 14-4) - The Longhorns put their eight-game win streak on the line Wednesday (Feb. 9) in a rivalry matchup at Oklahoma before ending the week at home versus Baylor. Texas split with the Sooners last season, losing in Norman as seven-point chalk, and dropped all three of its games against Baylor including a 19-point loss in a pick 'em during the Big 12 Tournament.
#4 PITTSBURGH (21-2, 9-9) - Pitt begins the week on Monday with a Backyard Brawl battle at West Virginia. The Panthers were skinned in Morgantown last season, 70-51, as 10-point underdogs. Jamie Dixon's gang closes the week in Philadelphia for a big contest against Villanova on Saturday, a game we will preview here at Stat/Systems Sports.
#5 DUKE (21-2, 12-10) - What would rivalry week be without a Blue Devils, Tar Heels matchup. The two ACC foes square off at Cameron on Wednesday, with the rematch coming March 5 in Chapel Hill. Duke closes the week on the road Sunday (Feb. 13) in Miami against a Hurricanes team it beat 74-63 at home on Jan. 2 as 19-point chalk.
#6 CONNECTICUT (18-4, 10-6) - UConn searches for consistency following a pair of losses and close win at Seton Hall when Jim Calhoun's crew faces a tough test at St. John's on Thursday (Feb. 10). The Huskies finish the week at home next Sunday versus Providence.
#7 SAN DIEGO STATE (23-1, 13-9) - The Aztecs will be home to host Utah on Tuesday (Feb. 8) and Steve Fisher's biggest job in that one will be to keep his team from looking ahead to Saturday's road trip to Las Vegas. SDSU got past UNLV at home on Jan. 12 in a defensive struggle, 55-49, covering as 4½-point chalk.
#8 BRIGHAM YOUNG (22-2, 9-11) - Jimmer Fredette and the Cougars will be in Colorado Springs on Wednesday to take on Air Force, then return home for Saturday's matchup against Utah. Brigham Young beat both schools back-to-back in January, failing to cover a huge 21-point spread at home against the Falcons (76-66) then easily covering the 12-point line in Salt Lake City versus the Utes (104-79).
#9 NOTRE DAME (18-4, 11-7) - The Fighting Irish have a tough test at home on Wednesday against No. 15 Louisville. The two played a double overtime thriller last year at Freedom hall where the Cardinals came away 91-89 winners as 12-point favorites. Notre Dame closes the week Saturday in Tampa against South Florida.
#10 KENTUCKY (16-6, 8-9) - John Calipari versus Bruce Pearl, that's the coaching matchup on Tuesday when the Wildcats host the Volunteers. Kentucky then heads to Nashville on Saturday to meet Vanderbilt.
*** #715 PHOENIX @ #716 GOLDEN STATE (-3, O/U 221) ***
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The Golden State Warriors have been playing well on the defensive end. That certainly hasn't been the case when the Phoenix Suns have been in town. The Warriors look to match a season high with their fourth straight win when they try to snap a three-game losing streak to the Suns on Monday night. Despite ranking among the NBA's worst with 105.9 points allowed per game, Golden State (22-27) has been outstanding on defense over the last three contests, holding opponents to 88.3 points and 42.4 percent shooting. The Warriors had one of their best defensive stretches of the season in the fourth quarter of a 101-90 victory over Chicago on Saturday, holding the Bulls to 18 points.
"Defensively we've been doing some great things, but we haven't been able to put it together for an entire game" coach Keith Smart said. "But today I think we did it... except for a little bit of the third quarter, but we put it together in the fourth quarter where it was a perfect defensive game in the fourth quarter." Golden State, though, has been far from perfect at the defensive end versus Phoenix (23-25). The Suns have averaged 123.0 points and 52.7 percent from the field in their last eight games in Oakland. Phoenix has scored 122.3 points a game and shot 47.1 percent in taking nine of the last 11 overall meetings.
Despite going 6 of 18 from 3-point range, Phoenix made 54.8 percent from the floor and won its second in a row at Oracle Arena on Dec. 2, 107-101. The Suns, however, are coming off a poor late-game effort in a 111-107 home loss to Oklahoma City on Friday. They made two field goals in the last three-plus minutes and were outscored 31-20 in the final period. "Obviously we've got to do a little bit better job defensively in the fourth quarter," coach Alvin Gentry said, "but we also missed a bunch of shots that could've given us a little separation or could've kept us right there in the game."
Vince Carter kept the Suns in it with a season-high 33 points, but he went 1 of 7 in the fourth as Phoenix's three-game winning streak was snapped. "Sometimes you feel like you have the hot hand and you are going to keep rolling," Carter told the Suns' official website. "(Missing shots) just happens sometimes." That hasn't been the case recently for Warriors point guard Stephen Curry, who has averaged 24.1 points and 55.5 percent shooting over the last eight games. Curry has also keyed the Warriors' tough defense of late, as he helped force Bulls All-Star guard Derrick Rose into a season-high nine turnovers Saturday.
"Tonight we wanted to press up on him, trap him when he had the ball and making him get (the ball) out of his hands to put them in tough situations," Curry said. "It worked out." Curry's job won't get any easier against Phoenix's Steve Nash, who despite turning 37 on Monday is averaging 16.7 points and 11.0 assists, second best in the NBA. Nash scored 13 points with 16 assists in the teams' last matchup in Oakland. Warriors guard Monta Ellis had 38 points in that contest and has averaged 33.7 in the Suns' last three visits.
--GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 132.2, OPPONENT 124.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 51.5, OPPONENT 51.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Golden St by 2; O/U 216.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Golden St -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Golden St -1.74
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%).
(27-5 since 1996.) (84.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -113
The average score in these games was: Team 101.2, Opponent 94.5 (Average point differential = +6.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1, +5.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +15.1 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more.
(38-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%, +27.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -155
The average score in these games was: Team 114.4, Opponent 107.1 (Average point differential = +7.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2, -1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-7, +22.1 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (47-11, +26.5 units).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=82 shots/game) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO) vs. a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) after 42+ games.
(32-10 since 1996.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 110.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 58.6, Opponent 58.1 (Total first half points scored = 116.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-9).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-10).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs (PHOENIX) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games.
(51-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +29 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (57-16 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5
The average score in these games was: Team 105.2, Opponent 96.7 (Average point differential = +8.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 27 (37.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-12).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (59-29).
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***** MONDAY, FEBRUARY 7TH NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL KNOWLEDGE *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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•••QUICK HITS•••
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• PITTSBURGH @ W VIRGINIA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
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--PITTSBURGH: 9-2 ATS as an underdog.
--W VIRGINIA: 3-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
Home side won eight of last 10 Pitt-West Virginia games, with Panthers 7-3 in last 10, splitting last four here. Pitt G Gibbs is out (knee); that’s big blow to Panthers, who are 9-1 in Big East, 4-0 on road. WVU split last four games; they've scored just 56.4 ppg in last five games. Big East home teams covered 11 of 17 games if spread was 3 or less points.
• CLEVELAND ST @ DETROIT, 7:00 PM ET
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--CLEVELAND ST: 11-4 ATS as a favorite.
--DETROIT: 9-22 ATS in home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days.
Detroit (+9) lost 81-69 at Cleveland State Jan 20; they're 2-6 in last eight series games- Vikings are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Detroit won last two games, but is just 1-4 vs spread as Horizon underdog. Cleveland St. had its 6-game win streak snapped by Butler Saturday. Faves are 10-5 vs spread in Horizon games if spread is less than 4 points.
• IL-CHICAGO @ BUTLER, 7:00 PM ET
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--IL-CHICAGO: 0-7 ATS after a game where they covered the spread.
--BUTLER: 9-2 ATS after playing a game as an underdog.
Butler won eight in row, 11 of last 12 games vs Ill-Chicago, winning last six games played here, by 4-19-26-16-19-18 points, but Bulldogs are 2-4 in last six games overall, failing to cover last five as a favorite. Flames are 1-11 in Horizon, 3-4 as road dog, losing away games by 2-24-12-24-9-14-6 points. Double digit favorites are 5-8 vs spread in Horizon games.
• YOUNGSTOWN ST @ WRIGHT ST, 7:00 PM ET
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--YOUNGSTOWN ST: 2-8 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread.
--WRIGHT ST: 58-35 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game.
Youngstown has been gritty at home, but is 1-5 as a Horizon home dog, with road losses by 9-15-24-5-13-22 points; they lost 66-62 (+6) Jan 20 at home to Wright State. Raiders are 2-3 as Horizon home fave, winning home games by 24-3-5-13-6 points (lost to Valpo). Double digit faves are 5-8 against the spread in Horizon games, 5-5 at home.
• MISSOURI @ KANSAS, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
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--MISSOURI: 0-7 ATS in a road game where the total is 150 to 159.5.
--KANSAS: 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5.
Kansas PG Selby (foot) is out, but Jayhawks still won last three games by 24-22-20 points- they won three in row, eight of its last nine against rival Missouri, taking the last seven here by 9-12-33-3-19-25-19 points. Mizzou is 0-4 on Big 12 road, losing away games by 13-2-13-6 points. Double digit home favorites are 2-5 vs spread in Big 12 games.
• LOUISIANA TECH @ NEW MEXICO ST, 9:00 PM ET
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--LOUISIANA TECH: 4-13 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.
--NEW MEXICO ST: 11-3 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.
New Mexico State won six of last seven games vs Louisiana Tech, with Tech losing last five visits here by 15-4-9-2-2 points. Bulldogs are 2-8 in WAC but covered four of last five, including last three on road. Aggies didn't play Saturday; they're 4-0-1 as home favorite, winning by 12-18-25-9-8. WAC home favorites of 8+ points are 4-9 against the spread.
• LOYOLA-MD @ SIENA, 7:00 PM ET
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--LOYOLA-MD: 49-29 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses.
--SIENA: 0-8 ATS as a favorite.
Underdog is 11-1 vs spread in Siena's MAAC games, 7-0 in last seven Loyola tilts; Saints are 0-7 as a favorite, 0-5 at home (4-2 SU) with home wins by 6-4-2-7 points. Loyola covered its last four games as underdog. Siena (+3.5) won 76-59 at Loyola 10 days ago. Single digit home faves are 7-14-1 against the spread in MAAC games this season.
• THE CITADEL @ UNC-GREENSBORO, 7:00 PM ET
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--THE CITADEL: 30-17 ATS as an underdog.
--UNC-GREENSBORO: 1-9 ATS in home games when playing with one or less days rest.
NC-Greensboro started season 0-15, is 4-3 since (6-0-1 vs spread), with only one loss by more than a hoop; they won two of last three at home- they're 1-0 as a favorite. Citadel scored 55-60 points in losing last couple road games, but they did win last two on road (2-3 as road dog). Home team is 12-8 vs spread in SoCon games if number is 3 or less points.
• MANHATTAN @ IONA, 7:30 PM ET
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--MANHATTAN: 7-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games.
--IONA: 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points.
Manhattan is 4-19, a horrible team, but they've covered last five games on the road, losing by 10-12-2-7 points, with win at Marist on halfcourt shot at buzzer. 7-5 Iona lost last four games by total of 11 points; they are 4-1-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 9-24-18-18-38 points, with loss to Rider. Double digit home favorites are 12-6-1 in MAAC.
• AUSTIN PEAY @ TENNESSEE TECH, 8:00 PM ET
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--AUSTIN PEAY: 4-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games.
--TENNESSEE TECH: 1-5 ATS in all home games.
Tennessee Tech (+12) upset Austin Peay 71-68 in Clarksville Jan 20th, their third win in last four series games; Tech survived 22 turnovers by holding Peay to 36% from floor. AP lost four of their last six trips here; they're 3-4 in last seven games overall, after starting out 6-0 in OVC. Single digit home underdogs are 7-11 against the spread in OVC games.
• MURRAY ST @ E ILLINOIS, 8:00 PM ET
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--MURRAY ST: 12-4 ATS in road games after a conference game.
--E ILLINOIS: 17-35 ATS as a home underdog.
Eastern Illinois (+14) won 61-60 at Murray State Jan 20th, in large part due to Racers' subs going 2-9 from foul line; it was Panthers' first win in last seven series games. Murray is 5-2 in last seven visits here, winning by 18-6-11-6-9 points. Underdog covered Eastern's last nine games. OVC home underdogs of 6+ points are 5-3 vs spread.
• TENNESSEE ST @ JACKSONVILLE ST, 9:00 PM ET (TC)
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--TENNESSEE ST: 10-1 ATS off a home win.
--JACKSONVILLE ST: 3-11 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival.
Tennessee State (-9) beat Jacksonville State 68-63 Jan 20, in a game Jax led by 10 at half; teams split season series in each of last five years, as Gamecocks won four of last five series games played here. OVC home underdogs of less than 4 points are 0-8 vs spread. Tigers lost three of last four games; they're 2-4 on OVC road, with wins by 10-3 points.
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
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• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS - All Types - NCAAB - Displays the Highest Rated Active Super Situations for Upcoming Games. This includes all situation types including ATS, money line, total, halftime, and teaser.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* WRIGHT ST -12 - (88.5%)
4* MURRAY ST -360 - (85.7%)
4* MURRAY ST -8 - (84.6%)
4* THE CITADEL +1 - (81.2%)
4* AUSTIN PEAY -175 - (80.9%)
--PLAY ON - Any team (WRIGHT ST) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half.
(23-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-5 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.8
The average score in these games was: Team 68.3, Opponent 60.7 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (40% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (38-15).
--PLAY ON - Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MURRAY ST) - revenging a loss vs opponent, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
(90-15 since 1997.) (85.7%, +57.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -250
The average score in these games was: Team 73.3, Opponent 64.3 (Average point differential = +9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-2, +20.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (48-5, +38.3 units).
--PLAY ON - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MURRAY ST) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-1 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.9
The average score in these games was: Team 72.2, Opponent 60 (Average point differential = +12.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 12 (42.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (43-22).
--PLAY ON - An underdog vs. the 1rst half line (THE CITADEL) - off a home loss against a conference rival, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=20%).
(26-6 since 1997.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.1, Opponent 29.3 (Average first half point differential = +2.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0).
--PLAY ON - A favorite vs. the money line (AUSTIN PEAY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss as a home favorite.
(93-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.9%, +55 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -173
The average score in these games was: Team 71.6, Opponent 64 (Average point differential = +7.6)
The situation's record this season is: (3-4, -5.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-12, +20.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (229-87, +70.2 units).
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• NOTES & TIPS
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--Josh Selby, Kansas Jayhawks – Selby missed Saturday’s blowout victory over Nebraska and is listed as questionable for Monday’s tilt with Missouri. Selby had scored at least 12 points in three straight games before spraining his left ankle and averages 12 points at 3.2 assists per game. The Jayhawks are pegged as 10-point favorites with the total pegged at 154.
--Just as the Tar Heels are playing their best basketball of the season, winning four in a row since being blown out at Georgia Tech, junior guard Larry Drew II decides to leave the team. Drew has left the program to transfer. He has been a major contributor lately and had nine assists in the last game against Boston College. You have to wonder about the timing of this decision. A move like this, early in February, cannot help the team emotionally and physically.
Losing a key player in the rotation is never a good situation. It puts more pressure on the guys still there, including a player such as Kendall Marshall. Drew must be concerned about his future, and this all comes down to playing time. North Carolina was also hurt by the transfer of the Wear brothers (David and Travis) at the beginning of the season. They headed back to the west coast, to join Ben Howland's club at UCLA. It will be interesting to see the effect this has on the Tar Heels for the next few games. At this point in the season, it is extremely tough to lose a piece to the puzzle, especially when he played such significant minutes.
--One unbeaten, One winless left in Division I, look at the only unbeaten and winless teams remaining in Division I through Sunday, Feb. 6. UNBEATENS: Ohio State (24-0). Last win: Freshman Jared Sullinger had 18 points and 13 rebounds and the top-ranked Buckeyes beat Minnesota 82-69 despite going 10 of 20 from the free throw line. Next game: at No. 19 Wisconsin (17-5) on Saturday.
WINLESS: Centenary (0-25). Last loss: South Dakota State went 12 of 23 from 3-point range in a 102-73 win over the Gentlemen, who lost their 30th straight, four short of the Division I record set by Sacramento State from 1997-99. Next game: at Southern Utah (7-16) on Thursday.
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••• WEEK #14 NCAAB BETTING PREVIEW •••
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If you thought you were going to have time to catch your breath and regroup following the Super Bowl, think again. Rivalry week arrives on the college basketball betting schedule Monday with ESPN flooding its airwaves with a huge list of conference matchups. Week #13 didn't turn out to be unlucky for most of last week's top 10, though Kentucky might argue that. Ranked No. 10 last week, the Wildcats dropped a pair of close road contests at Mississippi (71-69) and Florida (70-68). Kentucky now has to try and get its act back together against a pair of Volunteer State rivals, Tennessee and Kentucky.
No. 6 Connecticut was the only other top-10 school to suffer a loss this past week, falling 66-58 as three-point home chalk to Syracuse who was coming off four consecutive defeats. The Huskies did manage to get back in the win column on Saturday, but just barely in a 61-59 win once again as three-point favorites. UConn has now dropped its last three games at the NCAA betting window after beginning the season 10-3 against the spread. Here's a quick glance at where the most recent AP top 10 will be in action over the next seven days.
#1 OHIO STATE (24-0 SU, 11-10 ATS) - The Buckeyes have a light week with just one game, and it's a big one. Ohio State travels to Wisconsin on Saturday (Feb. 12) in a collision of ranked schools that finds the Buckeyes looking for their first win in Madison since March 2003. The two schools swapped home wins and covers last season, both games finishing 'under' the total.
#2 KANSAS (22-1, 11-10) - Bill Self's crew begins the week at home Monday (Feb. 7) against their rivals from Missouri. The Jayhawks currently own a three-game SU and ATS streak versus the Tigers who last won in Lawrence in 1999. Kansas will remain at Allen Fieldhouse for Saturday's matchup with Iowa State. Coach Self is 95-9 straight up and 60-41-3 against the spread at home in conference games during his career as a Division-1 coach, including 26-11-1 ATS versus a conference foe off a SU and ATS win.
#3 TEXAS (20-3, 14-4) - The Longhorns put their eight-game win streak on the line Wednesday (Feb. 9) in a rivalry matchup at Oklahoma before ending the week at home versus Baylor. Texas split with the Sooners last season, losing in Norman as seven-point chalk, and dropped all three of its games against Baylor including a 19-point loss in a pick 'em during the Big 12 Tournament.
#4 PITTSBURGH (21-2, 9-9) - Pitt begins the week on Monday with a Backyard Brawl battle at West Virginia. The Panthers were skinned in Morgantown last season, 70-51, as 10-point underdogs. Jamie Dixon's gang closes the week in Philadelphia for a big contest against Villanova on Saturday, a game we will preview here at Stat/Systems Sports.
#5 DUKE (21-2, 12-10) - What would rivalry week be without a Blue Devils, Tar Heels matchup. The two ACC foes square off at Cameron on Wednesday, with the rematch coming March 5 in Chapel Hill. Duke closes the week on the road Sunday (Feb. 13) in Miami against a Hurricanes team it beat 74-63 at home on Jan. 2 as 19-point chalk.
#6 CONNECTICUT (18-4, 10-6) - UConn searches for consistency following a pair of losses and close win at Seton Hall when Jim Calhoun's crew faces a tough test at St. John's on Thursday (Feb. 10). The Huskies finish the week at home next Sunday versus Providence.
#7 SAN DIEGO STATE (23-1, 13-9) - The Aztecs will be home to host Utah on Tuesday (Feb. 8) and Steve Fisher's biggest job in that one will be to keep his team from looking ahead to Saturday's road trip to Las Vegas. SDSU got past UNLV at home on Jan. 12 in a defensive struggle, 55-49, covering as 4½-point chalk.
#8 BRIGHAM YOUNG (22-2, 9-11) - Jimmer Fredette and the Cougars will be in Colorado Springs on Wednesday to take on Air Force, then return home for Saturday's matchup against Utah. Brigham Young beat both schools back-to-back in January, failing to cover a huge 21-point spread at home against the Falcons (76-66) then easily covering the 12-point line in Salt Lake City versus the Utes (104-79).
#9 NOTRE DAME (18-4, 11-7) - The Fighting Irish have a tough test at home on Wednesday against No. 15 Louisville. The two played a double overtime thriller last year at Freedom hall where the Cardinals came away 91-89 winners as 12-point favorites. Notre Dame closes the week Saturday in Tampa against South Florida.
#10 KENTUCKY (16-6, 8-9) - John Calipari versus Bruce Pearl, that's the coaching matchup on Tuesday when the Wildcats host the Volunteers. Kentucky then heads to Nashville on Saturday to meet Vanderbilt.
StatSystems NBA & NCAAB Report, Monday 2/7/11 cont.
*** #717 PITTSBURGH @ #718 WEST VIRGINIA (-1, O/U 130) ***
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Pittsburgh is still bitter about how poorly it played in its last trip to West Virginia, and that game has been over for more than a year. Motivated by that ugly loss, the fourth-ranked Panthers try to hand the 25th-ranked Mountaineers a rare defeat in Morgantown on Monday night in the 181st meeting in this series, known as the Backyard Brawl. Pittsburgh (21-2, 9-1 Big East) is off to the fourth-best start in its history and leads the Big East by two games. Ashton Gibbs (16.3 points per game), Brad Wanamaker (12.3) and Gilbert Brown (11.5) lead the Panthers' offense, but two of those stars failed to score in Pittsburgh's 70-51 loss at WVU Coliseum on Feb. 3, 2010.
Wanamaker and Brown each missed their four field goal attempts. Gibbs wasn't much better, going 2 for 13 from the field and finishing with 11 points. "Last year when we went down there we got outplayed," Brown said. "Several of us were shut out. It's going to be a battle, but we want to go down there and finish out strong, especially for us seniors. We're going to have to step up. It's going to be crazy." While the then-No. 6 Mountaineers (15-7, 6-4) completely overpowered the 22nd-ranked Panthers to beat their rivals for the 24th time in 32 meetings at WVU Coliseum, the victory was overshadowed by an ugly incident.
West Virginia's fans threw objects onto the court, prompting Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins to take a microphone and address the raucous crowd. With 5:14 left, while officials reviewed a scuffle under the basket, Panthers assistant coach Tom Herrion was hit with what appeared to be a coin under his right eye. "It wasn't good last year when we went down there," Wanamaker said. Nine days after their embarrassing loss in Morgantown, the then-No. 25 Panthers defeated fifth-ranked West Virginia 98-95 in triple overtime, the longest game in the series' history. Gibbs and Wanamaker each scored 24 points for Pitt, while Brown finished with 16.
Gibbs enters this meeting coming off a brilliant performance in Saturday's 71-59 win over Cincinnati. He had 18 of his career high-tying 25 points in the first half, en route to his ninth 20-point outing of the season. "It's just something that's clicking," said Gibbs, who made all five of his 3-point attempts against the Bearcats. "I'm trying to move without the ball as much as I can, and my teammates are doing a great job of just finding me in open spots." While Pittsburgh has been receiving stellar contributions from Gibbs, its uncertain what to expect from West Virginia top scorer Casey Mitchell (15.7 ppg).
Mitchell was scoreless in nine minutes off the bench in Saturday's 66-50 loss to then-No. 12 Villanova, his first game back from a three-game suspension for an undisclosed violation of team rules. Coach Bob Huggins didn't say why Mitchell was suspended indefinitely on Jan. 24, and offered less insight on his reinstatement. "Because I'm the coach," Huggins said. "And I decide who plays and who doesn't." Huggins wasn't in chipper mood after watching his team miss 7 of 12 free throws and get outrebounded 35-29. "When we win, we rebound the ball," he said.
--The Mountaineers, who are 0-4 when getting outrebounded, will likely have a tough time on the boards against a Pittsburgh team that leads the nation in rebounding differential at 12.5 per game. West Virginia has played under the total in five straight contests.
--W VIRGINIA is 20-5 UNDER (+14.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 67.9, OPPONENT 62.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--W VIRGINIA is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 32.1, OPPONENT 32.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - W Virginia by 0.5; O/U 136
*STAN'S POWER LINE - W Virginia -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Pittsburgh -2.60
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Road teams as an underdog or pick (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 50 points or less.
(25-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.8%, +16.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 61.1, Opponent 63.1 (Average point differential = -2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (43.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (41-21).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less.
(35-12 since 1997.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 62.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.7, Opponent 28.7 (Total first half points scored = 58.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-9).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (W VIRGINIA) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.
(39-14 since 1997.) (73.6%, +23.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 133.7
The average score in these games was: Team 72.8, Opponent 66 (Total points scored = 138.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (52.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-9).
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*** #725 MISSOURI @ #726 KANSAS (-10, O/U 154) ***
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Kansas coach Bill Self was not planning on freshman guard Josh Selby being ready Monday night when the second-ranked Jayhawks host No. 14 Missouri. The 6-foot-2 Selby, Kansas' best 3-point shooter, has what is described as a stress reaction in his right foot. After warming up, he decided not to play at Nebraska on Saturday. But in a vivid demonstration of the depth of the Jayhawks (21-1, 7-1 Big 12), senior Brady Morningstar had 19 points and six assists. "Him not practicing today, and being off since Tuesday is not a great sign for a guy playing against a team like Missouri that gets after it like that," Self said Sunday.
"Yesterday he still experienced a little bit of discomfort and tenderness. Maybe it's better 24 hours later but I'm not believing it's going to be to the point where I have total confidence putting him out there." Self is not worried about Selby's problem becoming a long-term issue so long as he doesn't come back too soon. "I would rather lose him for two games now rather than lose him for 4 or 5 weeks. Our doctors are confident this thing is calming down. they think he's much better than what he was. They think he'll be even better given just a little more time."
Both teams are coming off impressive wins. The Jayhawks dominated Nebraska 86-66, handing the Huskers their first loss in 15 home games. Missouri (18-5, 4-4) had five players in double figures in an 89-73 home victory over Colorado, which had 23 turnovers. All season, the Tigers have had trouble winning on the road. For more than a decade, they've had problems winning at Kansas. The Jayhawks have an 11-game winning streak against their archrivals in Allen Fieldhouse. "Every game is a big game. It's huge because the next game on our schedule is big because it's an obvious rival," said Missouri's Kim English, who had 21 points against Colorado.
"Streaks don't mean too much. We don't go into any game expecting to lose. They put their shoes on just like us." English enjoys Allen Fieldhouse, where the Tigers are 14-40 all-time. "Other than Mizzou Arena, it's my favorite place to play," he said. "Great atmosphere, an exciting game. It's definite for 40 minutes." Kansas' Morris twins worried Missouri coach Mike Anderson more than the atmosphere in Allen Fieldhouse. Becoming more and more dominant inside, the hulking duo is a major reason Kansas leads the nation in shooting at 52 percent from the field. "No question about it, they have two of the better forwards in the country," Anderson said.
"They're playing awful well right now. We want to be unpredictable. We have to match the physicality of the game and hopefully we'll get guys contributing off the bench in a big way." Kansas' biggest challenge could be stopping guard Marcus Denmon, who has scored in double figures in 19 of the last 20 games. "He's really matured into a really, really good college player," Self said. "For sure a first-team all-leaguer and the most improved player in our league. He's a model of consistency, which is something every team needs. Kansas has covered in each of its last five meetings with Mizzou and heads into Monday’s game having covered in three straight overall.
--KANSAS is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS 79.2, OPPONENT 65.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--KANSAS is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.
The average score was KANSAS 41.1, OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Kansas by 12.5; O/U 153.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Kansas -10
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Kansas -12.83
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10 or more points (MISSOURI) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an road win scoring 85 or more points.
(31-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (8-33 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 14.9
The average score in these games was: Team 68.1, Opponent 77.2 (Average point differential = -9.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (42.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (60-53).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (KANSAS) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games against opponent hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games.
(49-16 since 1997.) (75.4%, +31.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.6, Opponent 35.1 (Average first half point differential = -3.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-6).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MISSOURI) - off a home win by 10 points or more, playing their 2nd game in 3 days.
(53-21 since 1997.) (71.6%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 153.8
The average score in these games was: Team 72.3, Opponent 76.9 (Total points scored = 149.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 37 (50.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-10).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams against the total (KANSAS) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making >=47% of their shots.
(39-17 since 1997.) (69.6%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 65.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.2, Opponent 28.7 (Total first half points scored = 62)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
*** #717 PITTSBURGH @ #718 WEST VIRGINIA (-1, O/U 130) ***
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Pittsburgh is still bitter about how poorly it played in its last trip to West Virginia, and that game has been over for more than a year. Motivated by that ugly loss, the fourth-ranked Panthers try to hand the 25th-ranked Mountaineers a rare defeat in Morgantown on Monday night in the 181st meeting in this series, known as the Backyard Brawl. Pittsburgh (21-2, 9-1 Big East) is off to the fourth-best start in its history and leads the Big East by two games. Ashton Gibbs (16.3 points per game), Brad Wanamaker (12.3) and Gilbert Brown (11.5) lead the Panthers' offense, but two of those stars failed to score in Pittsburgh's 70-51 loss at WVU Coliseum on Feb. 3, 2010.
Wanamaker and Brown each missed their four field goal attempts. Gibbs wasn't much better, going 2 for 13 from the field and finishing with 11 points. "Last year when we went down there we got outplayed," Brown said. "Several of us were shut out. It's going to be a battle, but we want to go down there and finish out strong, especially for us seniors. We're going to have to step up. It's going to be crazy." While the then-No. 6 Mountaineers (15-7, 6-4) completely overpowered the 22nd-ranked Panthers to beat their rivals for the 24th time in 32 meetings at WVU Coliseum, the victory was overshadowed by an ugly incident.
West Virginia's fans threw objects onto the court, prompting Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins to take a microphone and address the raucous crowd. With 5:14 left, while officials reviewed a scuffle under the basket, Panthers assistant coach Tom Herrion was hit with what appeared to be a coin under his right eye. "It wasn't good last year when we went down there," Wanamaker said. Nine days after their embarrassing loss in Morgantown, the then-No. 25 Panthers defeated fifth-ranked West Virginia 98-95 in triple overtime, the longest game in the series' history. Gibbs and Wanamaker each scored 24 points for Pitt, while Brown finished with 16.
Gibbs enters this meeting coming off a brilliant performance in Saturday's 71-59 win over Cincinnati. He had 18 of his career high-tying 25 points in the first half, en route to his ninth 20-point outing of the season. "It's just something that's clicking," said Gibbs, who made all five of his 3-point attempts against the Bearcats. "I'm trying to move without the ball as much as I can, and my teammates are doing a great job of just finding me in open spots." While Pittsburgh has been receiving stellar contributions from Gibbs, its uncertain what to expect from West Virginia top scorer Casey Mitchell (15.7 ppg).
Mitchell was scoreless in nine minutes off the bench in Saturday's 66-50 loss to then-No. 12 Villanova, his first game back from a three-game suspension for an undisclosed violation of team rules. Coach Bob Huggins didn't say why Mitchell was suspended indefinitely on Jan. 24, and offered less insight on his reinstatement. "Because I'm the coach," Huggins said. "And I decide who plays and who doesn't." Huggins wasn't in chipper mood after watching his team miss 7 of 12 free throws and get outrebounded 35-29. "When we win, we rebound the ball," he said.
--The Mountaineers, who are 0-4 when getting outrebounded, will likely have a tough time on the boards against a Pittsburgh team that leads the nation in rebounding differential at 12.5 per game. West Virginia has played under the total in five straight contests.
--W VIRGINIA is 20-5 UNDER (+14.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 67.9, OPPONENT 62.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--W VIRGINIA is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 32.1, OPPONENT 32.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - W Virginia by 0.5; O/U 136
*STAN'S POWER LINE - W Virginia -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Pittsburgh -2.60
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Road teams as an underdog or pick (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 50 points or less.
(25-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.8%, +16.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 61.1, Opponent 63.1 (Average point differential = -2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (43.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (41-21).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less.
(35-12 since 1997.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 62.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.7, Opponent 28.7 (Total first half points scored = 58.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-9).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (W VIRGINIA) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.
(39-14 since 1997.) (73.6%, +23.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 133.7
The average score in these games was: Team 72.8, Opponent 66 (Total points scored = 138.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (52.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-9).
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*** #725 MISSOURI @ #726 KANSAS (-10, O/U 154) ***
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Kansas coach Bill Self was not planning on freshman guard Josh Selby being ready Monday night when the second-ranked Jayhawks host No. 14 Missouri. The 6-foot-2 Selby, Kansas' best 3-point shooter, has what is described as a stress reaction in his right foot. After warming up, he decided not to play at Nebraska on Saturday. But in a vivid demonstration of the depth of the Jayhawks (21-1, 7-1 Big 12), senior Brady Morningstar had 19 points and six assists. "Him not practicing today, and being off since Tuesday is not a great sign for a guy playing against a team like Missouri that gets after it like that," Self said Sunday.
"Yesterday he still experienced a little bit of discomfort and tenderness. Maybe it's better 24 hours later but I'm not believing it's going to be to the point where I have total confidence putting him out there." Self is not worried about Selby's problem becoming a long-term issue so long as he doesn't come back too soon. "I would rather lose him for two games now rather than lose him for 4 or 5 weeks. Our doctors are confident this thing is calming down. they think he's much better than what he was. They think he'll be even better given just a little more time."
Both teams are coming off impressive wins. The Jayhawks dominated Nebraska 86-66, handing the Huskers their first loss in 15 home games. Missouri (18-5, 4-4) had five players in double figures in an 89-73 home victory over Colorado, which had 23 turnovers. All season, the Tigers have had trouble winning on the road. For more than a decade, they've had problems winning at Kansas. The Jayhawks have an 11-game winning streak against their archrivals in Allen Fieldhouse. "Every game is a big game. It's huge because the next game on our schedule is big because it's an obvious rival," said Missouri's Kim English, who had 21 points against Colorado.
"Streaks don't mean too much. We don't go into any game expecting to lose. They put their shoes on just like us." English enjoys Allen Fieldhouse, where the Tigers are 14-40 all-time. "Other than Mizzou Arena, it's my favorite place to play," he said. "Great atmosphere, an exciting game. It's definite for 40 minutes." Kansas' Morris twins worried Missouri coach Mike Anderson more than the atmosphere in Allen Fieldhouse. Becoming more and more dominant inside, the hulking duo is a major reason Kansas leads the nation in shooting at 52 percent from the field. "No question about it, they have two of the better forwards in the country," Anderson said.
"They're playing awful well right now. We want to be unpredictable. We have to match the physicality of the game and hopefully we'll get guys contributing off the bench in a big way." Kansas' biggest challenge could be stopping guard Marcus Denmon, who has scored in double figures in 19 of the last 20 games. "He's really matured into a really, really good college player," Self said. "For sure a first-team all-leaguer and the most improved player in our league. He's a model of consistency, which is something every team needs. Kansas has covered in each of its last five meetings with Mizzou and heads into Monday’s game having covered in three straight overall.
--KANSAS is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS 79.2, OPPONENT 65.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--KANSAS is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.
The average score was KANSAS 41.1, OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Kansas by 12.5; O/U 153.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Kansas -10
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Kansas -12.83
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10 or more points (MISSOURI) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an road win scoring 85 or more points.
(31-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (8-33 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 14.9
The average score in these games was: Team 68.1, Opponent 77.2 (Average point differential = -9.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (42.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (60-53).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (KANSAS) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games against opponent hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games.
(49-16 since 1997.) (75.4%, +31.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.6, Opponent 35.1 (Average first half point differential = -3.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-6).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MISSOURI) - off a home win by 10 points or more, playing their 2nd game in 3 days.
(53-21 since 1997.) (71.6%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 153.8
The average score in these games was: Team 72.3, Opponent 76.9 (Total points scored = 149.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 37 (50.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-10).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams against the total (KANSAS) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making >=47% of their shots.
(39-17 since 1997.) (69.6%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 65.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.2, Opponent 28.7 (Total first half points scored = 62)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8).
